Analysis of Trump's trip to China

President Trump’s first trip to China since 2017 was supposed to reset relations between the world’s two largest powers. Instead, markets fell, trade breakthroughs never came, Taiwan tensions took center stage, and President Xi Jinping openly raised the “Thucydides Trap” — the idea that conflict often emerges when a rising power challenges an established one.

In this GVS Deep Dive, we examine why this summit may ultimately be remembered not for what was signed, but for what it revealed: a shifting balance of global power between the United States and China.

We break down:

• Why investors reacted negatively after the summit

 • Xi Jinping’s direct warning about the “Thucydides Trap”

 • Whether the U.S. is entering a period of relative decline

 • China overtaking the U.S. in PPP economic size

 • Trump’s comments on Taiwan and strategic ambiguity

 • Beijing’s warning that Taiwan could lead to conflict

 • Why China rejected Nvidia H200 AI chips despite U.S. approval

 • The collapse of Nvidia’s market position inside China

 • Boeing deals, export controls, and China’s push for self-reliance

 • Why no major trade or investment breakthroughs were achieved

 • The future of U.S.-China relations under Trump

 • Whether great power transition can happen peacefully

The summit was described by one analyst as “heavy on symbolism and not substance.” But history may remember it as something much larger: the moment the world openly began discussing whether China is replacing the United States as the dominant global power.