Yes, it is true.

 

 

I wrote to Vladimir Kozin today to ask if a certain theory I've pieced together was on the right path.

He had sent an email around sharing the joy of Russians that their government had at long last recognized the two Donbass Republics - Lugansk and Donesk - as independent states.

    Great news Vladimir - congratulations

    I read today that Zelensky actually wanted this so that Ukraine would not have to implement Minsk agreements - plus all those votes in the Donbass would now be gone next presidential election time.

    Could this be true?

    Bruce

 

Vladimir responded:

Yes, it is true.

Kind regards,
Dr. Vladimir Kozin
 
Member, Russian Academy of Military Sciences
Member, Russian Academy of Natural Sciences,
Vice President, Russian National Institute for Global Security Research
Winner of Colonel-General Varfolomei Korobushin Reward (Russian Strategic Missiles Forces) and Russian Academy of Natural Sciences Reward
Leading Expert, Center for Military-Political Studies, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO)
Ph.D, Senior Researcher (Academic Rank)

 

What Next?

So my theory is that all sides wanted out of this mess without losing face. The US wanted out of it - the Biden neo-cons (amateurs that they are) stumbled into a hornets nest but were able to use it to help distract the public from our collapsing economy at least until their next visit to the grocery check-out counter.

After Russia declared it will send a peace-keeping force to the Donbass all the EU, UK and US corporate agents had to scream and holler. More sanctions will be placed on Russia. But can Europe really afford to completely divorce themselves from doing business with Russia? 

France is in a tight spot because Macron is running for reelection but most of the country hates him. He needs a diplomatic win, plus Paris does understand that Russia, China, Iran and others are leading the new push to multi-polarism. France doesn't want to be left behind as the train leaves the station. But Macron has to play along for a while with the denouncing of Russia for recognizing the independence of the Donbass. What will Macron do now next to make himself 'indispensable'?

The US understands that it is fading but needs a big enemy due to the fact that it has an economy addicted to war. Thus, not being able to take down Russia as Washington hoped, they need another diversion (all addicts are like this) so China is now being aimed at through the Pentagon's gun-sights. 

(We've just learned that a 'missile defense' radar, set to be deployed in Hawaii, is now instead going into Guam. Even closer to China. Pentagon would call it a 'strategic shift'. Activists in Guam are already building resistance.)

 
Germany wants Nordstream 2 and needs a way out of this controversy since the Green Party partners in the new government have been fighting to kill the natural gas pipeline from Russia. For the time being Germany is saying that 'certification' of the pipeline will be put on hold - but I don't think it is dead yet. The German business community will likely be putting big pressure on the government to keep it alive. The Green Party takes orders from Washington which hates Nordstream 2 so they will keep trying to put a stake through the heart of the pipeline. Very sad how the Greens have sold out. Without the pipeline how will Germans heat their homes?

 

President Zelensky wanted an out too. He knows his army would be slaughtered if it attacked the Donbass in an all-out assault. Ukraine was never going to honor their signing of the Minks Agreements that called for a federated state where the Russian-ethnic citizens in the Donbass would be allowed to speak their own language and elect their own local leaders. The Nazis are adamantly opposed to the Minks Agreements.

So Zelensky really wants to cut Donbass loose - won't have to worry about those damn Minsk Agreements (that Kiev had agreed to honor but never did) and those couple million voters in the Donbass during the next election. Plus now that they temporarily moved the capital to Lvov (the Nazi stronghold in western Ukraine) they can seriously think about dumping the other parts of Ukraine that are Russian-ethnic and just create a 'pure Nazi state' near the Poland border. 

The US would like that and certainly the weapons industry would rush into that new market. A US-NATO military base would likely be built. This 'pure' Ukraine could then still help to internally destabilize the other parts of Ukraine not currently in the fascist grip by creating a festering sore along Russia's flank. The US loves to do that - just look at Afghanistan, Libya, the former Yugoslavia, Syria and Iraq. All examples of US-NATO efforts to create failed states.

The remaining question? Is this current situation going to drive Washington and Brussels to double-down and push their endless war machine ever closer to Russia's borders? If they do then fighting in  Ukraine could still happen. If the long and simmering war does escalate dramatically the question arises as to how far into Ukraine would Russia go? Moscow's primary goal would be to take out the military capability of Ukraine's Nazi-led army. They are not eager for war.

Putin does not want to have to rebuild that vast Ukrainian territory that has been wrecked by US-NATO. He's long said they need to fix it.

We should know soon, now that Russia has made its move on the chess board.