Iran is actively preparing for an attack by the United States and Israel, despite reports of some progress in nuclear talks.
In a clear warning to both the U.S. and Israel, on February 16, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy kicked off drills in the strategic Hormuz Strait.
The strait was closed for several hours on the second day of the drills due to “security precautions,” and commander of the guard’s navy, Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri, stated that Iran is prepared to close the waterway at command.
As the drills were ongoing, the U.S. military began sending dozens of warplanes to the Middle East. At least 18 F-35A Lightning II stealth fighter jets left Lakenheath Air Base in the United Kingdom on February 16 headed for Muwaffaq Salti in Jordan.
The next day, a dozen F-22 Raptors stealth fighter jets left Langley Air Force Base in Virginia heading east. At least six landed at Lakenheath Air Base in the UK.
In addition, at least 48 F-16 Fighting Falcons moved toward the Middle East. The multirole fighter jets took off from Aviano Air Base in Italy, Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany and McEntire Joint National Guard Base in South Carolina.
Two E-3 Sentry Airborne Warning And Control Systems (AWACS) aircraft also landed at Mildenhall Air Base in the UK. At least one U-2 Dragon Lady spy plane was also spotted on the way to the Middle East.
One the same day it was revealed that the USS Gerald R. Ford has already arrived near the Strait of Gibraltar, which means it could join the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Middle East in under a week.
Amid this escalation, an Iranian delegation led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a second round of indirect talks with U.S. representatives, headed by U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Geneva on February 17.
Araghchi said that Iran and the U.S. reached an understanding on the main “guiding principles” of a new nuclear agreement, and spoke of a “window of opportunity”.
Optimism was short lived, however, as a report published by Axios on February 18 revealed that President Donald Trump was “fed up” with Iran, and that a long, multi-week campaign that starts with a joint U.S.-Israel attack may be just a few days away.
All in all, it appears that the U.S. is nearing a decision on war with Iran. The U.S. and Israel will likely be ready to attack within a week. Iran will likely react with full force. Closing the Hormuz Strait will be an option for the Islamic Republic.
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Another view by former CIA analyst Larry Johnson of Sonar 21 Read on his site – this is only a snippet.
The massive deployment of US combat air assets to the Middle East, accompanied by two carrier strike groups, is not a negotiating ploy. The USCENTCOM chain of command, along with the supporting military assets (e.g., AFSOC, JSOC, EUCOM), fully expected the launch order to be issued for a Friday night strike. But the order has not been issued… At least not yet, as of 2200 hours eastern time on Friday. What is going on?
For starters, there are two senior members of the Trump administration who are warning the President that the attack would be political suicide. They reportedly buttressed their argument against attacking Iran by providing the President with the results of a recent opinion poll. According to the poll results, if Trump starts a war with Iran and there are significant US casualties, the Titanic has a better chance of sailing again than the Republicans winning the midterms. It appears — at least for now — that Trump is reconsidering giving the Execute order.
A second factor that makes an attack less likely this weekend is Tuesday’s State of the Nation address by Trump. Chief of Staff Susie Wiles may be a corrupt, Zionist tool, but she is not politically obtuse. Starting a war with Iran, especially after Trump’s tariff deal was slapped down by the US Supreme Court, would likely set off a firestorm among the Democrats, Independents and the media. Instead of Trump being able to tout all of his massive achievements during his first year of his second term, the public attention would be clamoring for info about the war. JCS Chairman Caine and Admiral Brad Cooper, Commander of CENTCOM, have warned the President that there is a high likelihood that there would be US casualties when the US attacks.
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