Organizing Notes

Bruce Gagnon is coordinator of the Global Network Against Weapons & Nuclear Power in Space. He offers his own reflections on organizing and the state of America's declining empire....

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The collapsing US military & economic empire is making Washington & NATO even more dangerous. US could not beat the Taliban but thinks it can take on China-Russia-Iran...a sign of psychopathology for sure. @BruceKGagnon

Saturday, May 07, 2022

Can Washington handle a two-front war?

 


I'm concerned... that the US is pushing hard against China's red lines on Taiwan, just as it pushed Russia's red lines on Ukraine.  Taiwan is different in that unlike Ukraine, Taiwan is officially recognized as part of China, essentially a breakaway province left over from China's civil war 73 years ago.  If such a war happens, it will more likely involve American vs Chinese forces directly, and be potentially much more disastrous and dangerous in terms of quick escalation. We'll hear the same arguments about Chinese aggression against a sovereign nation, even though Taiwan is officially acknowledged as part of China by the US, UN, Taiwan's official name (the Republic of China) and constitution, and of course Beijing. 

When Nixon went to China fifty years ago and the two nations opened relations again starting with the Shanghai Communique (https://peacepivot.org/affirming-the-us-china-joint-shanghai-communique-peace-cooperation-now/ ), one of the critical agreements made was that there is only "one China and that Taiwan is a part of China."  The US agreed to end official contact with Taiwan and to only have unofficial contact.  But lately the US has not only surrounded China with bases and moved 60% of our naval power there, we have been sailing entire carrier battle groups through the Taiwan Straits, flying US military planes to land in Taiwan and then take off from Taiwan to conduct patrols along China's coast (effectively using Taiwan as a US military base), and sending congressional delegations there.
 
Mike Pompeo recently visited there, and some in Congress are openly advocating for a recognition of Taiwan as an independent sovereign nation, which would absolutely cross China's red lines.  How would the US react if China were to declare Hawaii an independent sovereign nation?  My fear right now is that the US seems to be pushing for a second war front in Asia just as in Europe.  To me, this makes no logical sense, but based simply on American actions, this seems to be what the US is doing.  If Taiwan and/or the US declares independence for Taiwan, China has said that this is unacceptable and will be a justification for China to use force.

With a hot war already going in Ukraine, would the US be crazy enough to start a second front in Asia? 

It doesn't seem logical, but it is what American actions appear to be driving towards. If such a war does break out, China is fully capable of sinking American ships, including aircraft carrier battle groups, and possibly US subs as well.  If that were to happen, how far and how fast will the US escalate?  And where will it end?  How will those of us who are Chinese Americans be treated?  Like the Japanese were in WW2?  Worse, will the war go nuclear?
 
I know these things seem unthinkable, but given the current trajectory of the United States, it appears to be time to start thinking about them.  I don't have answers, but I have serious concerns and questions.
 
Mike Wong (VFP)
San Francisco

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