Los Alamos Study Group: "Trump should accept this offer immediately. There are no downsides from any responsible perspective."
By Greg Mello
Albuquerque, NM -- Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered to extend the quantitative nuclear arsenal limits of New START for one year, which would allow time to negotiate a further extension of the treaty if the U.S. and Russia agree.
In Putin's words,
"The New START Treaty will expire on February 5, 2026, signaling the imminent end of the last international accord directly limiting nuclear missile capabilities. A complete renunciation of this treaty’s legacy would, from many points, be a grave and short-sighted mistake. It would also have adverse implications for the objectives of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
"In order to prevent the emergence of a new strategic arms race and to preserve an acceptable degree of predictability and restraint, we consider it reasonable to maintain at this turbulent time the status quo established under New START. Accordingly, Russia is prepared to continue observing the treaty’s central quantitative restrictions for one year after February 5, 2026.
"Following that date, based on a careful assessment of the situation, we will make a definite decision on whether to uphold these voluntary self-limitations. We believe that this measure is only feasible if the United States acts in a similar spirit and refrains from steps that would undermine or disrupt the existing balance of deterrence.
Russia warns US about Golden Dome scheme
"In this connection, I would like to ask the relevant agencies to maintain close oversight of American activities related to the START arsenal in the first place. Particular attention must be directed towards US plans to expand strategic components of its missile defense system, including preparations for the deployment of interceptors in outer space. We believe that the practical implementation of such destabilizing measures could nullify our efforts to maintain the status quo in the field of strategic offensive arms. We will respond appropriately in this case.
"I believe that Russia’s initiative, if implemented, could make a substantial contribution to creating the conditions necessary for a substantive strategic dialogue with the United States – provided, of course, that the grounds for its full resumption are secured and that broader steps are taken to normalize bilateral relations and remove core security contradictions."
On February 21 2023, Russia withdrew from New START's mutual inspection regime, while promising to abide by the treaty's central quantitative limits. There have been no accusations by either the U.S. or Russia of failing to remain within those limits. Both countries have the technical means to exceed the New START limits but neither has done so.
Taken together, the U.S. and Russia possess 87% of the world's nuclear weapons. Bilateral nuclear treaties involving these nuclear peer competitors are of central importance in managing the risk of nuclear war.
Study Group director Greg Mello:
"Trump should seize this offer with both hands, now. There are no downsides from any responsible perspective. As Putin says, a one-year extension could be the beginning of a longer extension. It could be, in Putin's words, part of a 'substantive strategic dialogue' amid 'broader steps...to normalize bilateral relations and remove core security contradictions.'
"Accepting this offer immediately, before contrary forces in and around the U.S. government have the opportunity to undermine it, would show real leadership.
"The alternative is a strategic nuclear arms race, in which there would be no winners.
"Needless to say, the 'Golden Dome' proposal for a comprehensive missile defense system is and will remain a technical fantasy. No conceivable missile defense system will avail against Russia's modern non-ballistic nuclear weapons, which were designed specifically to be impervious to missile defenses. These include high-speed, deeply-submerged Poseidon intercontinental undersea drones, maneuverable hypersonic weapons of more than one kind, and both long and short-range cruise missiles. Some of these weapons are already deployed and more are coming -- absent more robust arms control. Fantasies like 'Golden Dome' should not replace real arms control in a broader context of durable mutual security.
"Mutual security, the basis of fruitful relations in many fields, is inconceivable without nuclear arms control.
"If Trump wants to make progress, he must suppress any desire he may feel to loop in China. One thing at a time.
"Accepting Putin's offer would be a helpful signal to UK and European warmongers, who are doing their dead-level best to continue the war against Russia in Ukraine. It would also send a signal to U.S. nuclear hawks, who imagine they can manipulate Trump into programs costing billions more each year, all the while decreasing U.S. security while undercutting fiscal responsibility. With this overture, he is being offered a bully pulpit he can use to change that tune.
"The other side of the coin is that Putin's offer is one Trump can't refuse without losing face at home and abroad. Most people in this country are not interested in wasting trillions of dollars on preparing for a war that can't be survived, let alone 'won'.
"To bring this home to Los Alamos, the plutonium warhead cores ('pits') to be made here at enormous capital and human cost are meant to provide multiple warheads for each missile in the much-delayed Sentinel missile system. If present deployments were to continue unchanged, there would be enough modern warheads already, without Los Alamos pits. Under New START, multiple warheads can't be deployed on land-based intercontinental missiles without decreasing deployments of submarine warheads, or of nuclear-capable bombers.
"Accepting Putin's offer is a no-brainer -- all benefit, no cost. Please, President Trump, take this offer and build on it."
~ Greg Mello, Los Alamos Study Group, New Mexico
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