By Dr. Dave Webb
At time of writing, the biennial NATO military exercise ‘Cold Response 26’ is taking place from March 9 to 19. It is being led from the Norwegian-US headquarters in Reitan, near Bodø, Norway. About 32,500 personnel are participating, including around 11,800 in Norway and 7,500 in Finland. The rest are at sea and in the air. Military from 14 countries are involved - Norway, the USA, the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Italy, Canada, Spain, Turkey, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, and Belgium. It is basically a NATO show of force against Russia and the High North is being used by an expanding NATO as a military practice ground in which to rehearse future war fighting strategies and to test and develop new military technologies.
According to the official website of the Norwegian Armed Forces: "The main purpose of the exercises is to contribute to deterrence, strengthen defense, calm the population". But how is the presence of the US military in Scandinavia expected to "calm" people, given Donald Trump’s flagrant disregard for international law and his wish to own Greenland?
What is that about? Greenland, the world’s largest island, is home to more than 56,000 people. A former Danish colony and now an autonomous territory of Denmark. Its capital city Nuuk is closer to New York than it is to Copenhagen and the US already has an active military base there.
Pituffik Space base, formerly known as Thule Air Base, is on the northwest coast of Greenland, 1,126 kms north of the Arctic Circle. In the 1950s aircraft made surveillance flights from there, over the pole, to inspect Soviet defences. In 1957 four Nike Missile sites were constructed around the base and in 1961 a Ballistic Missile Early Warning System (BMEWS) radar was built to give the US warning of a missile attack from Russia.
On 21 January 1968 a US bomber from an Air Force Base in New York state carrying 4 nuclear weapons, crashed just outside the base. Luckily the failsafe mechanisms prevented a nuclear explosion but there was widespread radioactive contamination. In 2007 a BBC reporter claimed that one of the nuclear weapons was unaccounted for, but this was denied by the US and Denmark. Some details of the incident remain classified, however.
In June 1987, the BMEWS mechanically steered radar was upgraded to a two-sided, solid-state phased-array electronically steered radar system, similar to the one at Fylingdales in North Yorkshire. It then became a missile warning and tracking component of the US National Missile Defense System. After the US Space Force was established by Trump in 2019, the base was transferred to Space Delta 4, under the command of Buckley Space Force Base in Colorado. Thule Air Base was renamed Pituffik Space Base in April 2023 in recognition of the former Inuit settlement. Pituffik Space Base plays a key role in missile defence and satellite tracking and targeting. The recent retaliatory attacks by Iran on US missile defence radars is a dire warning to people who live on or near the base in Greenland and elsewhere (including Fylingdales!).
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| US war fighting radar at Fylingdales in North Yorkshire in the UK |
There is also a Pituffik Tracking Station, about 5.6 km southeast of the main base, which tracks and commands high-priority government satellites. It provides telemetry, tracking and command data for satellites that are used for surveillance, communication, navigation and weather. The Space Force says the base helps enable “space superiority.”
The 1951 Defence of Greenland Treaty with Denmark grants the US broad military rights, including the establishment of bases, provided Denmark and Greenland are notified, and unrestricted movement for defence purposes. However, Danish sovereignty over the territory is also recognised as part of the treaty which remains in effect as long as NATO does.
Trump has said that Greenland is needed for the ‘Golden Dome’ missile defence project, but the Pituffik radar is there already and part of US national Missile Defense, so what else might be needed? Perhaps the siting of anti-ballistic missiles there?
But there’s more - in January, Trump claimed the Arctic was covered in Russian and Chinese warships to justify his push for control of Greenland. Russia does have a nuclear submarine base in the Arctic, on the Kola peninsula, the other side of Finland and Russia and China have increased joint naval and air patrols in the North Pacific and near Alaska but there has been no evidence of “swarms” of Russian or Chinese military ships near Greenland as Trump claims.
Greenland is however, at a very strategic location. The GIUK (Greenland, Iceland, and the UK) gap is a critical maritime choke point in the North Atlantic, separating the Norwegian/North Seas from the open Atlantic Ocean. It is an important strategic, monitoring, and anti-submarine corridor that NATO uses to track Russian naval activity. The position of Faslane, guarding the GIUK gap, is also of great strategic importance to NATO.
There are also important commercial considerations. As global warming shrinks the arctic ice cap it allows more maritime traffic, mining and other commercial activity to take place in the high north. During the summer, shipping routes can operate for longer periods in the Arctic region. Shipping has risen by nearly 40% in the region over the last 12 years, according to the Arctic Council (a kind of common security organisation whose primary purpose is to advance sustainable development and environmental protection in the region, including of indigenous peoples).
These routes are particularly important for Russia and China. Russia has over 53% of the total Arctic coastline and controls most of the resources there, while China identifies as a ‘Near Arctic State’ with the opening-up of its ‘Polar Silk Road’ as a trade route, reducing travel time to Europe by 40%. The expanding China footprint in the Arctic is seen as a security challenge by the US.
Then there are the resources becoming newly available. The US Geological Survey estimates that over 87% of the Arctic's oil and natural gas resource (about 360 billion barrels oil equivalent) is in seven key Arctic basin provinces including two to the east and west of Greenland. There are also rare earth metals present which are in high demand for electric cars and the manufacture of military equipment. A 2023 survey showed that 25 of 34 minerals considered “critical raw materials” by the European Commission were to be found in Greenland. China currently dominates global rare earth production and Trump does not like that, so controlling Greenland and its resources could really be about keeping China out.
However, the extraction of oil and gas is banned in Greenland for environmental regions, and investment in mining faces challenges - perhaps a new arrangement with Denmark could allow the US to build without planning permission and expand into mineral-rich areas?
The full details of the “framework of the future deal with respect to Greenland” announced by Trump remain unavailable and Greenlanders are concerned that they are being left out of talks between the US and Denmark. Trump seems to insist on “owning” Greenland and although there is a constitutional ban on the sale of land, Trump’s recent actions show that he has no respect for law or any other state’s sovereignty.
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