Organizing Notes

Bruce Gagnon is coordinator of the Global Network Against Weapons & Nuclear Power in Space. He offers his own reflections on organizing and the state of America's declining empire....

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Location: Bath, Maine, United States

The collapsing US military & economic empire is making Washington & NATO even more dangerous. US could not beat the Taliban but thinks it can take on China-Russia-Iran...a sign of psychopathology for sure.

Monday, December 06, 2021

Ukrainian refugee in Russia comments on possible war


I was on a Zoom call yesterday with some activists from around the globe led by GN advisory board member Leonid Ilderkin from Russia. We discussed the current Ukraine-Russia situation.

Leonid (a refugee in Russia from Ukraine since the 2014 US orchestrated coup d'etat in Kiev) said that last spring when these same tensions were happening that he did not believe war would start. He proved to be correct. Now, Leonid says, he is not so sure.

The principle reason Leonid said was that the Nordstream 2 pipeline from Russia to Germany, that will deliver natural gas, is a key factor. The US has always opposed the pipeline because Washington wishes to control the European energy market by shipping more expensive LNG (fracked) gas on ships from the US to Europe. Now that the pipeline is finished Germany just has to give their final approval to start it.

Another key point is the new German government has a Foreign Minister from the Green Party that dislikes Russia and China. She is more allied with Washington. The German business community supports the pipeline because Russian gas would be much cheaper for them.

As it turns out, if the US was to prevail then the LNG gas on ships would dock in Poland so that nation becomes a key player in all of this. Leonid suggested the question was who has the most influence with Poland? Germany or the US?

At the same time the United Kingdom is building naval bases in the Black Sea for Ukraine. So that adds another complicating dimension to the equation. In the meantime those on the call suggested that peace people worldwide should immediately be speaking out more directly opposing any Ukrainian or US-NATO military operations aimed at Russia.

Leonid felt confident that Russia would not likely initiate any such military operations unless the Donbass (eastern Ukraine) or Russian territory (particularly Crimea) was attacked first.

 In an email exchange after the call Leonid told me:

About the issue of the Ukrainian conflict, I can say again, I am not sure the clashes of bigger scale will not happen within the nearest 2 months. Number of factors give the ground of worries. Number one factor is the opportunity to stop the Northstream 2 if the conflict in Ukraine will sparkle. Number two is the general situation in European peninsula about the ongoing attempts of England to step into European continental affairs, using the support of Poland and Baltic countries against influence of Germany and France.
That is why, most likely, USA will not promote the provocative strike of Ukrainian forces against Russian. But English will (most likely in the entrance of Crimean peninsula). Most likely, Russian will respond with the missile and aviation strike. The probability of a strike on the ground is the list option. Nevertheless, the Russian air strikes in response will lead to some deeper split between Russia and EU, and that will be exactly the purpose of England and partially will support the war fraction in US.
Russian want to avoid this scenario by much of efforts. But most likely, they will not succeed. The attacking forces of Ukraine will strike not Donbass, but Crimea. The only force to stop it, can be US diplomacy that can break the English plan. Will US implement it is the question?



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