On October 8, a day after Hamas attacked Israel, the Lebanese Hezbollah joined the fray. It sent missiles towards military
installations in north Israel. 80,000 Israeli settler living in the
north fled from their homes. They are still sitting in hotels around
Israel and are waiting for the return of quietness to that front.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had announced that the current
northern tit-for-tat campaign between Hezbollah and Israeli forces would
continue until a permanent ceasefire is agreed upon in Gaza.
But the radicals in charge of Israeli policies do not want a
ceasefire in Gaza. They want to eradicate Hamas and as much of the Gazan
population as possible. A ceasefire would prevent them from doing so.
On the other hand there is pressure from northern settlers who want
to return to their homes. But without a ceasefire in Gaza the low level
conflict in Israel's north and southern Lebanon is bound to continue.
Instead of working towards a ceasefire in Gaza the Israeli military
and government are planning to invade southern Lebanon and to occupy it
up to the Litani river.
The plan is delusional. Hezbollah is grounded in the Shia communities
which inhabit south Lebanon. Is Israel expecting that population to
move out? That is not going to happen.
Hezbollah, with its number of forces exceeding 100,000 men, is well
prepared for a fight. South Lebanon is criss-crossed with well prepared
fighting positions and tunnels. More than 150,000 missiles, many of them
long range, are ready to be launched against military and economic
targets in Israel. The 2006 invasion of south Lebanon ended in an utter
defeat for the Israeli army. There is no reason to believe that a
renewed fight would have a different outcome.
In case of a new conflict Hezbollah has plans to cross the border and to occupy parts of northern Israel. It is also ready to expand a war should this be necessary:
The leader of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, warned of a
war “without rules or ceilings” in the event of a full-scale Israeli
offensive against the Lebanese militia, as he threatened that Cyprus
could become a target if it allowed Israel to use its territory in any
conflict.
Cyprus and Israel have a bilateral defence cooperation agreement which has seen the countries conduct joint exercises.
“Opening Cypriot airports and bases to the Israeli enemy to target
Lebanon would mean that the Cypriot government is part of the war, and
the resistance will deal with it as part of the war,” the Hezbollah
chief said.
Nikos Christodoulides, the island’s president, responded on Wednesday
evening: “Cyprus remains uninvolved in any military conflicts and
positions itself as part of the solution rather the problem.”
Starting a war with Hezbollah may well spell the end of Israel as a
settler state. Missile attacks on its infrastructure and military will
lessen the confidence the settlers still may have in the Zionist state.
Many are likely to return to their home countries if a conflict endures.
Despite such danger to its Zionist project the U.S. administration is backing any and all Israeli plans:
The US has indicated it is open to backing an Israeli
offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon, amid mounting frustration that
the group continues to link a truce with Israel to an elusive broader
ceasefire in Gaza. [Pentagon has sent a U.S. aircraft carrier battle group to the Mediterranean Sea. There are credible rumors that the Pentagon has placed several thousand troops in Lebanon.]
In his meetings in Beirut on Tuesday, US envoy Amos Hochstein
delivered "blunt" warnings to Lebanese officials that Israel is
preparing to launch a limited offensive on Hezbollah and will have the
US's support if a diplomatic solution isn't found, a senior Arab
official told Middle East Eye.
Hochstein met with Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Speaker
of Parliament Nabih Berri on Tuesday, both of whom the US has used as
intermediaries with Hezbollah, the Iran-backed group the US designates a
terrorist organisation.
Hochstein told Lebanese officials that Israel anticipates roughly
five more weeks of intense fighting in Gaza, after which it will pause
its main offensive across the enclave. However, it will continue to
target senior Hamas officials and conduct attacks to recover hostages.
From the perspective of the current Israeli government a continuation of the war on Gaza requires an additional war in Lebanon:
Hochstein warned that once fighting in Gaza pauses, Israeli
officials intend to turn their full focus to the northern border with
the aim of pushing Hezbollah back from the area so the roughly
60,000-96,000 displaced Israelis can return to their homes before the
start of school in the fall.
Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged near-daily fire since 8 October,
but the conflict ratcheted up last week after Israel killed Taleb Sami
Abdullah, one of the most senior members of Hezbollah. The group
responded by launching hundreds of drones and rockets at Israel.
The Israeli military said on Tuesday night that it had approved plans
for an offensive in Lebanon. Earlier in the day, Israel launched
strikes on Hezbollah drone launch squads, the Israeli military said.
In a speech on Thursday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah doubled
down on military action saying Hezbollah has "a complete bank of
targets", against Israel that include in the Mediterranean.
"The enemy should expect us on land, sea and air, and we will fight without restraints, rules or limits," he said.
Hezbollah published a nine minutes long drone video which showed
military and economic targets around the Israeli harbor city of Haifa.
That multiple Hezbollah drones could fly over Israel without being
bothered by air defenses is a huge loss of face for the Israeli
military.
The members of the resistance axis, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shia groups
in Syria, Iraqi militia and the Houthi in Yemen, are ready to fight.
Even without attacking Iran, the main power behind the resistance,
Israel and the U.S. are likely to lose such a war.
Without a chance to win they would of course, as usual, escalate the war most likely towards Iran, potentially Turkey, and elsewhere. Where it would go from there is unpredictable.
Why they would even launch such an avoidable war is beyond me.