
By Pepe Escobar
The hour is getting late. Virtually all pieces of the puzzle are falling into place.
Even as his “massive armada” is being deployed, neo-Caligula social
posts/vociferates to Iran: “MAKE A DEAL” (originally in caps). That’s
maximum pressure in effect. Not even the possibility of negotiation.
It’s Capitulation or War.
Neo-Caligula’s Top Three demands:
- Iran should ditch its – civilian – nuclear program, as in total cessation of uranium enrichment.
- Iran must reduce its missile program to a minimum.
- Iran must stop supporting “proxy forces” – as in Hezbollah, Yemen’s Ansarallah and Iraqi militias.
There’s absolutely no way that Ayatollah Khamenei, the IRGC and the
Majlis – the Iranian Parliament – will agree to any item on this
ultimatum, dictated, of course, by the Zionist axis. Hence no
capitulation.
Cue to Tehran dramatically raising the stakes.
The Majlis has already approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The final decision is in the hands of the Iranian government/security
apparatus. This is in fact binding for the government and the military,
de facto authorizing the IRGC, under full constitutional cover, to seal
the Strait of Hormuz.
I’ve extensively written about that on Asia Times during the past
decade. At the time, Goldman Sachs derivative experts were adamant: if
Hormuz is blocked, before or during a full-scale naval war in the Gulf,
oil may reach $700.00 a barrel.
And this will only be temporary – because the entire global economy will collapse.
Most of all, the blocking of Hormuz would trigger the detonation of
the TWO QUADRILLION (caps mine) dollars derivative market – updating the
initial, misleading calculation by the BIS (Bank for International
Settlements), placed at $700 trillion. Over the years, several Gulf
traders, off the record, have agreed with the “quadrillion” numbers.
Also during the past decade, the US Joint Chiefs of Staff admitted
that they do not have the military ability to keep Hormuz open. That
remains the case.
Now cut to clueless little gusano Marco Rubio – bought and paid for
by Zionist vulture billionaire Paul Singer, who already profited from
the Venezuela operation – talking about US “force posture” near Iran.
As 30-40k US troops are “in reach of thousands of Iranian UAVs and
ballistic missiles”, it’s “prudent” to have forces to “defend against
what could be (Rubio’s own definition) an Iranian threat”.
Of course, this “threat” would never come from the Empire of Chaos,
Plunder and Permanent Strikes – following a neo-con dream already
sketched in the late 1990s.
So, according to Rubio logic, the US Army now reserves the right to launch a preemptive strike against Iran.
Assuming this preemptive strike happens, Tehran has already signaled, via a Supreme Leader’s advisor and the Foreign Ministry,
among others, that it won’t be a limited war.
Translation: even the ghost of a Tomahawk hitting Iranian territory
will be answered by an “immediate and comprehensive response” targeting
Tel Aviv and US bases across the Gulf.
Quick recap: neo-Caligula – at least at face value – frames his
threats as a prelude to a “deal” which would in effect amputate Iran’s
nuclear program and its whole defense/dissuasion mechanisms.
Tehran’s response: you attack us, and we destroy Israel as a
functioning entity – plenty of hypersonic missiles are up to the task –
and you, neo-Caligula, becomes responsible for the collapse of the
global economy.
“Unconventional” weapons and “strategic surprises”
Venezuela was just a rehearsal. Iran is the Holy Grail.
Neo-Caligula is not attempting to impose a mere military blockade of
Iran. He is launching hardcore economic siege warfare – aimed not only
at Iran but also China and Russia, disrupting at the same time Belt and
Road Initiative (BRI) integration projects (China-Iran) and the
International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC, uniting
Russia-Iran-India).
This is the next level – way beyond Hybrid, approaching Hot – of the
comprehensive imperial war on BRICS, directed against no less than four
top BRICS: Iran, Russia, China and India.
We are way beyond mere “containment” of Iran. This is a systemic
threat, all-round, across the geopolitical and geoeconomic spectrum,
directly disturbing energy flows, connectivity corridors and strategic
partnerships. And all that disguised as a mere “security” operation.
Iran’s asymmetric naval strategy, painstakingly built since the
start of the millennium, has myriad ways to counter-act an imperial
attack: over 6,000 naval mines; deployment of swarm tactics via small,
missile-armed boats; countless anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles
positioned along the Persian Gulf shoreline; scores of kamikaze drones,
submarines and anti-ship missiles scattered on Gulf islands.
Iran is massing all its firepower on what it describes as the “first
line of confrontation”, as in the Persian Gulf. Unlike during the 12-day
war, everything will be used in the theatre: “unconventional” weapons;
an array of “strategic surprises”; new hypersonic missiles; massive
cyber-attacks.
Those with an IQ over room temperature at the Department of Forever
Wars might do their homework, for instance, on the Khalij Fars
supersonic anti-ship ballistic missile, part of Iran’s AAAD strategy:
Mach 3 speed; over 300 km range; over 650 kg warhead with EO/infrared
seeker. The Khalij Fars would have a ball against American sitting
ducks.
Iran has already switched off its radars and is going dark, including
the civilian radars at Imam Khomeini International Airport, to protect
itself from US missiles and at the same time to allow the installation
of Russian jamming systems Murmansk-BN (they need radar silence to be
properly calibrated).
Then, on the imperial side, there’s the imminent entry in the theatre
of the E-11A BACN: not a mere surveillance aircraft, but a sort of
massive “flying router”: a sky-high Wi-Fi linking F-35s and F-22s using
different communication systems with ground forces and ships, everything
in real-time and evading Iran’s notorious, mountainous terrain.
Are you ready to destroy the global economy?
NATO is, predictably, all over the place now, complete with strident regime change rhetoric. A sound scenario determines
that neo-Caligula may have struck a bargain with the EUro-chihuahuas: I
refrain from annexing Greenland (for now) but you support my war on
Iran.
Enter yet another “coalition of the willing” (actually “the
coerced”). It’s no wonder the IRGC is now being designated as a
“terrorist organization” by Brussels – on a par with al-Qaeda and ISIS
(these two, by the way, fully normalized by Washington, Brussels and
even Moscow).
In parallel, several NATO bases are being set up to help the American “massive armada” with a massive air bridge.
Tehran now has fully understood that what neo-Caligula and his
Zionist backers really want is regime change. This has absolutely
nothing to do with Iran’s nuclear program.
Still, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf continues to
stress that Tehran does not oppose the principle of dialogue and
diplomacy, as long as it involves mutual respect. Turkiye’s Sultan
Erdogan, for his part, is proposing a high-level trilateral between
Iran, the US and Turkiye, possibly via video conference.
It’s now up to diplomacy-averse neo-Caligula and his megalomaniacal
narcissist mood swings. So this is how the whole drama is coming to:
either neo-Caligula and his “massive armada” pauses, opening some room
for talks, and he ends up saving the global economy; or we have the
Gates of Hell opened in West Asia.
It’s Zero Hour time.