Will US-Israel restart war on Iran & Lebanon?

• 27 million Iranians have signed up as volunteers, so far, to defend Iran against US/Israeli aggression.
• Iran successfully continues to ship out crude oil (9 million barrels so far) despite the US naval blockade, based on open-source data provided by TankerTrackers. The US continues to claim they’re blocking all Iranian shipments.
• A U.S. Navy MQ-4C Triton surveillance drone flew a 12+ hour mission near Cuba, monitoring areas around Havana and Guantánamo Bay from international airspace.
• A Lebanese civilian bravely removed an enemy flag planted by the Israeli occupation forces atop Beaufort Castle (also known as Shaqif Arnoun Castle) in the Nabatieh Governorate of southern Lebanon, along with a surveillance camera installed for espionage purposes.  

• Iranian President Highlights Global Double Standards on Nuclear Energy. 'Nuclear weapons for Israel, war on Iran for a peaceful nuclear program. If Iran must give up its weapons, why is Israel allowed to keep 200 nuclear warheads without any accountability'?
• A painful morning in Tyre:💔In the final minutes before the ceasefire took effect at midnight, a heavy airstrike hit a neighborhood in the city, leading to the complete destruction of more than five residential buildings. The strike resulted in the deaths of a number of residents, while ambulance and civil defense teams are still continuing search operations under the rubble, in a heavy scene that reflects the pain of a night whose chapters have not yet ended. 

• Mehrdad Khalili said: On my way to Tehran by train, we suddenly stopped briefly and then moved forward at a slow speed. We crossed a bridge surrounded by debris. I learned that this bridge had been bombed by the enemy to disrupt our capabilities. While crossing, I saw engineers and heavy machinery working on its repair. I felt proud of our youth and our people. The enemy tried to prevent us from moving within our country, but this nation is resistant to any aggressor. As we were passing over the bridge, I truly felt that their power was beneath our feet.
• Brazilian President Lula: What cannot happen is that the world spends $2.7 trillion on weapons while people go hungry. What cannot happen is that we talk about decarbonizing the planet while bombs are being dropped every single day.
• Brazilian President Lula: The invasion of Iraq was a lie. Where are the weapons of mass destruction that Saddam Hussein supposedly had? They were never found. The invasion by France and England in Libya was another lie that caused enormous damage at that moment in our history. The invasion and the genocide carried out by Israel in Gaza is another very big lie. And now the bombing of Israel against Lebanon—on what pretext? And now the invasion by the United States against Iran—on what pretext? 

• Bloomberg: Airline passengers should prepare for more inconvenience in the coming months, as airlines around the world increase cancellations and ground aircraft to cope with soaring jet fuel prices.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry: We will not hand over enriched uranium to America.
• While Trump keeps claiming victory, only 15% of Americans say Trump already achieved his Iran war goals. 25% think he will achieve them later. 40% say he hasn’t / won’t / goals unclear. Just 38% support the strikes. Many think the goals are unclear or shifting.

• Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister: Trump talks a lot and contradicts himself in the same statements. If we return to war, we will respond with full force. There will be no future blockades, and no one can dictate to Iran. We entered two rounds of negotiations in good faith, but they betrayed diplomacy, and we will remain vigilant.
• Statement from the Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters: Based on previous agreements reached during negotiations, the Islamic Republic of Iran, in good faith, agreed to allow a limited number of oil tankers and commercial vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in an orderly manner. Unfortunately, the Americans, with their history of breaking promises, continue their piracy under the guise of a so-called blockade. Therefore, control of the Strait of Hormuz has reverted to its previous status, and this strategic waterway is under strict management and control by the armed forces. As long as the United States does not completely end the freedom of navigation to and from Iran, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will remain under strict control and as it was previously.

• “The truth doesn’t matter anymore, the facts don’t matter anymore”. Director of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Press Office, Eli Hazan, said he deliberately fabricates fake news as a communications tactic, stating “We need to be Trump”.
• Prof Marandi:  Nothing Trump has said is true. There is no nuclear agreement, and bloodthirsty Zionists just murdered another Lebanese citizen. Iran’s ten-point plan remains the framework for any agreement with the Trump regime, but Iran is also prepared for aggression.
• Mexican President Sheinbaum: I want to propose a declaration against military intervention in Cuba—let dialogue and peace prevail.
• Demonstration in New York to commemorate Palestinian Prisoner's Day and to reject continued support for the occupation.  

• The Spanish Prime Minister announced that his country supports ending the war in Gaza and the West Bank, reaffirming Madrid's position calling for a de-escalation.
• Protesters head to the Knesset in Israel, demanding the fall of the government. 

• Trump: Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are on their way to Islamabad to resume talks, which will begin Tuesday and possibly extend into Wednesday. If they don't sign the agreement, we will blow up the entire country, and power plants and bridges will become legitimate targets.
• Isfahan, Iran authorities say they are preparing a legal case over damage to historic sites caused by U.S. and Israeli strikes. Governor Mehdi Jamalinejad said around 203 locations in the Grand Bazaar and 28 historical monuments were damaged during the attacks and now require restoration, adding that legal proceedings are underway with hopes of a favorable outcome.
• Before the current ceasefire: Massive U.S.–Israeli strikes hitting hospitals in Iran, forcing staff to evacuate newborns during the active phase of the war. One hospital staff was seen carrying babies to safety.

• The US RC-135W reconnaissance aircraft returns to the region. The RC-135V/W Rivet Joint is considered the United States' most important intelligence asset before any major military strike against fortified targets in Iran, for example. Its mission is not bombing, but rather highly advanced electronic reconnaissance (SIGINT). It is a signals intelligence aircraft that intercepts and analyzes enemy radars, communications, and electronic emissions in real time to map military activity, track threats, and support targeting and operational planning.  
• Conservative insider Robert Barnes joins Larry Johnson to discuss the behind the scenes inside the Trump administration as chaos ensues at the White House. Barnes also outlines the danger zone the ruling Republicans face in the coming November congressional elections. Fascinating stuff. 

Sunday song plus Hegseth bonus

Report from Iran's largest Mosque

This is episode 3 of my journey to Iran during the war. 

Watch Dimitri Lascaris on Reason to Resist and see our trip in more detail:

   • Report From Iran's Largest Mosque 

Chapters:

0:00 History of Isfahan
01:45 Chehel Sotoun Heritage site
02:40 Art in Iran
04:58 Gardens in Iran
06:45 Damage to Chehel Sotoun
08:40 Food in Isfahan
10:58 Funeral Rally
12:58 Charity
15:20 Childrens ICU
17:41 Naqshejan Square
20:24 Bomb
23:25 Persian Rugs
26:56 Outro  

Sitting Bull on Netflix

I've just watched a really good Netflix 2-part series on Sitting Bull and the Lakota people.

The documentary is called 'Sitting Bull' and can be viewed here

This fine film covered all the basic elements of the story plus some new points that I was not aware of. I've been following this history since I lived in the Black Hills from 1962-1964 when my step-father was stationed at Ellsworth AFB in South Dakota. 

The experience of living there and being nearly daily exposed to native history, culture and spirituality changed my life for the better. I go back there every chance I get - the last time my son went with me and I was able to share with him the sacred places in the Black Hills that have meant so much to me over the years. 

He even went to the Black Hills while in his mother's womb in 1980. We attended the Black Hills International Survival Gathering. I still have a poster from that event hanging on our wall in my home.

The Netflix show covered the feverish US Army attempts to destroy the indigenous people across the Great Plains - particularly after the Civil War was over. 

The Battle of the Greasy Grass (the whites called it Custer's Last Stand), the coalition of Sitting Bull, Crazy Horse and Red Cloud with other tribes, the slaughter of the buffalo as official policy of the US  Army in order to starve the native people, horrible life on the reservations, the Ghost Dance movement, Sitting Bull joining the Wild West Show, and the eventual killing of Crazy Horse and Sitting Bull by the US Army because they feared both warriors even though they were stuck on the reservations.

Also covered in the film was the massacre at Wounded Knee, South Dakota in 1890 where the US Army killed more than 300 mostly unarmed Lakota people.

I was even thrilled that the Netflix documentary told my favorite story about Sitting Bull. In 1885 Buffalo Bill asked the government to send Sitting Bull to the east coast on a train so he could be the feature act of his Wild West Show that was touring the east coast and drawing big crowds. 

While in New York City Sitting Bull was walking the streets and was broken hearted to see the massive poverty at the time. It is told he sat on some door stoops and poor kids, street urchins, came up to him begging. So he gave all his money away to these poor people.

When he got back to the reservation, just before he was killed, the told his people, 'We are in big trouble. You should see how the white man treats his own children'.

During his time with the Wild West Show Sitting Bull tried to pass on to the eastern white colonizers a bit of the Lakota way of life - their spirituality, their thirst for freedom and independence, and their deep reverence for the natural world.

I'd also highly recommend this excellent book about Crazy Horse by Mari Sandoz. 

Bruce

the funnies

A sailor on the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier sent this image home to momma. They are on 'Hormuz alert' at sea with little resupply happening. I wonder how the toilets are working? They say the mail from home (with cookies) is also running late. Trump don't give a shit about these sailors. To Trump they are all 'losers'.  The piece of something on the left is either worn out shoe leather or the lying tongues of Washington's Epstein class. Ugly!

Latest from Professor Mohammad Marandi

Mohammad Marandi, a professor of English Literature and Orientalism at the University of Tehran, shares his views on the latest developments in the Middle East as a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel went into effect at midnight local time on April 17. 

Marandi explains the role of the Strait of Hormuz in talks between Iran and the US as well as the intervention by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron over the critical shipping lane for the global economy. 

The new assault of the Zionist lobby in Brazil

By Raphael Machado

The perception of a tropical “paradise” in perfect balance between Catholic faith and Dionysian spirit that does not quite align with Zionist manipulations is misleading.

The role of the Zionist lobby in the U.S. is so notorious that it has practically become contemporary folklore. Some European authors also emphasize the great influence that the Zionist lobby enjoys, primarily in France, and secondarily in the United Kingdom and Germany. Nowadays, there is also increasing talk of its influence over Argentina, especially in the context of the Andinia Plan.

But Brazil is almost always left out of this equation. To some extent, it is as if the image of a tropical “paradise” in perfect balance between Catholic faith and Dionysian spirit does not quite align with Zionist manipulations. But this perception is misleading.

In the past, we have commented on the overwhelming neo-Pentecostal growth in Brazil. Today, they make up approximately 30% of the Brazilian population, and with their theological specificities, they bring with them an obsession with the State of Israel. Moreover, there are plenty of theses claiming that neo-Pentecostal penetration in Latin America was a successful operation orchestrated by the CIA to subvert hegemonic Catholic spirituality and pave the way for Zionism.

In parallel, however, the Brazilian Jewish community itself has gradually built a modestly influential lobby, well-connected in politics, the media, and the judiciary, though far less aggressive than the Zionist lobby in other countries.

The test to verify, however, the degree of Zionist influence in Brazil and how much neo-Pentecostal expansion will serve to guarantee Zionist designs is unfolding now.

After the Gaza War, in which the State of Israel clearly attempted to carry out a Palestinian genocide, Israel’s reputation was completely shattered. All the credit accumulated because of the Holocaust was entirely exhausted by the scenes of mass extermination of innocent women and children. The lies and hypocrisy were so great that many people even began to question more easily whether Israel might have been behind 9/11 and the Kennedy assassination.

In recent years, Israel’s influence schemes became famous, including paying virtual activists to make pro-Israel comments in online discussions. This has been given the name “Hasbara.” It is nothing other than propaganda.

We could say, therefore, that Gaza made decades of “Hasbara” disappear.

 Presidente da República, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, durante reunião com o Presidente do Estado de Israel, Isaac Herzog. Expo City Dubai – Plenária Al Hairat – Dubai – Emirados Árabes Unidos. Foto: Ricardo Stuckert / PR 

Naturally, however, Israel could not give up such an important asset. As much as Israel seems to disdain international opinion, this opinion plays an important role in pressuring governments to maintain friendly relations with Israel despite its atrocities.

Hence, it was predictable since the Gaza ceasefire that Israel would seek to react; but since it is impossible to regain the goodwill of world public opinion, the Zionist lobby would simply set out to try to censor anti-Zionist opinions, without worrying about winning over that public opinion.

Recently, we came across something that proves this.

At the end of March 2026, a bill (PL 1424/26) was introduced in Brazil aimed at criminalizing antisemitism. Antisemitism is already a crime in Brazil, as a form of racism, but it is not defined, so the interpretation of what constitutes antisemitism is left to the judge.

The bill in question, however, aims to define antisemitism according to the definition of the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA). Among the various conduct categorized as antisemitism, the IHRA includes, nonetheless, advocating for the end of the State of Israel as a specifically Jewish state. In other words, even advocating for the transformation of the State of Israel into a free, open Palestinian state where Jews can live is considered antisemitism.

This bill is authored by Tábata Amaral, a federal deputy for the PSB, and it received a total of 44 signatures upon its introduction, from federal deputies belonging to the governing Workers’ Party (PT), the Bolsonarist opposition PL, and various centrist parties.

But where did this bill come from, and who is behind it?

Starting with the purported author of the bill, Deputy Tabata Amaral — known for promoting every globalist agenda in Brazil — belongs to that category of “prodigy students” who are awarded scholarships to Western universities, in her case Harvard. Her stay there was funded mainly by the Lemann Foundation, created by Swiss-Brazilian billionaire Jorge Paulo Lemann.

Lemann, one of the richest men in Brazil, is a friend of George Soros and recently hired the Rothschild Bank to represent him before his creditors in the bankruptcy case of “Americanas,” a company he owns. But unlike Soros, who has a different focus, Lemann in his “philanthropic” activities has the more specific goal of renewing the Brazilian political class. Deputy Tabata Amaral is an example of what Lemann intends. 

[This is a strategy impacting the entire world as the US brings 'bright' international students to the Ivy League schools and then after successful indoctrination sends them back to their country of origin and move them into key government circles. UK schools like Oxford are also key training grounds.  Many of the leaders throughout the EU have been similarly groomed to become high-level corporate globalist agents. They push endless war, cutbacks in social spending, education, etc. They are pirates.]

Furthermore, in the last elections, Amaral’s campaigns received funding from various figures in the Brazilian financial market — such as bankers Armínio Fraga and Cândido Bracher — and from the Zionist lobby — such as speculators Marcos Lederman and Luís Stuhlberger. Lederman, Stuhlberger, and Bracher, along with other oligarchs who fund Tabata Amaral’s electoral campaigns, such as Nizan Guanaes and Elie Horn, are figures who frequently appear at events and initiatives promoted by CONIB (the Israeli Confederation of Brazil), the Brazil-Israel Institute, and FIERJ (the Jewish Federation of Rio de Janeiro), important institutions of the Brazilian Zionist lobby. 

And as for the bill itself, who convinced Tabata Amaral to promote it?

According to exclusive information from sources in Brasília, the bill was drafted within the NGO Stand With Us Brazil, a Zionist institution with extensive and notorious links to the Mossad, chaired by André Lajst, with Argentine Bruno Bimbi as its strategy and policy manager. Bimbi is said to have been the main architect of the bill and went door to door in Congress to pressure parliamentarians into putting their signatures on it.

Bimbi is a notorious activist for LGBT causes and was one of the main organizers of the pressure campaign for the legalization of same-sex marriage in Argentina and Brazil. Now, however, his focus is more on Zionist activism.

To show that this is a broad-spectrum coordinated initiative, aimed at involving the right, left, and center simultaneously with this bill, the Lula government itself, through its Ministry of Human Rights and Citizenship, will hold an event on “antisemitism” this April, coordinated by Clara Ant.

(Jerusalém – Israel, 01/04/2019) Presidente da República, Jair Bolsonaro, e o Primeiro-Ministro de Israel, Senhor Benjamin Netanyahu, durante visita ao Muro das Lamentações. Foto: Alan Santos/PR

The event will put on its agenda the definition of antisemitism, relying precisely on the same International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance that defines criticism of the State of Israel as a possible expression of antisemitism. Among the speakers at the event will also be the presidents of the aforementioned CONIB, Claudio and Fernando Lottenberg.

And who is Clara Ant, the event coordinator? Born in Bolivia but raised in Israel, she has been Lula’s right-hand woman since the 1970s and was one of the founders of the CUT, the main trade union institution of the Workers’ Party. Ant is also a constant presence at CONIB events. 

Another link between the PT and the Zionist lobby is Senator Jaques Wagner, who in his youth was an activist in the Labor Zionist movement Habonim Dror, where he received his intellectual formation. Both as governor and as senator, Wagner — who was one of those who signed in support of Tabata Amaral’s bill — worked specifically to bring Brazil and Israel closer, especially in the areas of security and intelligence, even serving as rapporteur for an agreement that ceded confidential Brazilian intelligence information to the Mossad.

It does not seem likely that, at the present moment, given all the controversy the case has generated, this bill will be approved in Brazil. Nevertheless, the case serves to exemplify the tentacular and multifaceted character of the Zionist lobby’s activities in Brazil.

~ Raphael Machado is a Publisher, geopolitical and political analyst, writer specialized in Latin American affairs.

Indonesia scrambles to deal with Pentagon request for 'overflights'

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth shakes hands with Indonesia's Director General of Defence Strategy Major General Agus Widodo at the Pentagon on Monday as Indonesian Defence Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin (right) looks on. Photo: AFP

South China Morning Post

In Indonesia, leaked plan for US military overflights triggers sovereignty row

Internal warnings reveal a government split over risks that blanket access for US warplanes could drag Indonesia into foreign conflicts

A leaked plan to grant the US military sweeping overflight access to Indonesia's airspace has triggered a domestic backlash over concerns that Jakarta is "colluding with the aggressor" amid Washington's war on Iran.

Analysts say the defence document, first reported by New Delhi-based newspaper the Sunday Guardian, raises concerns that President Prabowo Subianto may be trading away Indonesia's strategic independence.

The proposal, which reportedly emerged following a meeting in February between Prabowo and US President Donald Trump, is said to grant American military aircraft "blanket" overflight access to the Southeast Asian nation's airspace for contingency operations, crisis response and joint exercises.

Indonesia's defence ministry on Monday acknowledged the existence of the plan but said it had not been finalised, describing it as a draft "letter of intent" still undergoing review. It further stressed that the government maintained full control of Indonesian airspace.

On Wednesday, foreign ministry spokesperson Yvonne Mewengkang said Indonesia had no policy granting unrestricted access to its airspace to any foreign party, and that the US proposal remained under internal consideration. She said any form of cooperation with Washington would remain subject to Indonesia's national mechanisms and procedures.

Behind the scenes, divisions have emerged. According to a Reuters report on Wednesday, Indonesia's foreign ministry sent a letter marked urgent and confidential to the defence ministry in early April warning that granting blanket overflight rights risked entangling Jakarta in foreign conflicts.

Indonesian Defence Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin flew to Washington to meet his US counterpart Pete Hegseth later in April and sign a "major defence cooperation partnership" aimed at bolstering regional security through military modernisation, increased interoperability and expanded joint exercises.

Both developments suggest that former military general Prabowo is "increasingly comfortable" pursuing closer defence ties with the US, according to Abdul Rahman Yaacob, a research fellow at the Rabdan Security and Defence Institute think tank in the United Arab Emirates.

Indonesian airspace itself could become contested, effectively drawing the country into a conflict it seeks to avoid Abdul Rahman Yaacob confirmed.

At the operational level, overflight access would allow US aircraft to slash transit times from bases in Australia or the Indian Ocean "to key theatres such as the Philippines and South Korea", he said.

But Rahman warned that granting such access could expose Indonesia to "retaliation or escalation".

"Indonesian airspace itself could become contested, effectively drawing the country into a conflict it seeks to avoid," he said.

"Early signs of domestic backlash, particularly in online discourse, suggest sensitivity to any perceived erosion of strategic autonomy or non-alignment."

Perception problems

Any agreement granting the US military broad overflight rights "has the potential to create a misleading impression in the eyes of China", said Febry Triantama, an assistant professor of international relations at Paramadina University in Indonesia.

Not only could such a move prove costly if conflict were to erupt in the South China Sea, it is also unclear what Indonesia actually stands to gain, according to Febry.

While the advantages to Washington were obvious, he said the benefits to Jakarta were "not visible and raise questions" - especially as Indonesia is not a formal US ally.

Febry also raised the possibility that the overflight access might be linked to trade negotiations: under Trump, several countries leveraged defence commitments and military procurement to secure better tariff terms with Washington. 

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto (left) at US President Donald Trump's inaugural 'Board of Piss'. 

Indonesia itself agreed in February to a 19 per cent US tariff on most of its goods - down from a threatened 32 per cent, but far higher than the near-zero rates it previously enjoyed.

Days later, the effective rate dropped even lower following a US Supreme Court ruling that struck down Trump's "reciprocal" tariff regime, at least temporarily.

Alfin Febrian Basundoro, a lecturer in international relations at Airlangga University in Surabaya, said the controversy risked criticism that Prabowo was "becoming increasingly accommodating" of Trump.

He pointed to public resentment over Indonesia's muted response to the US-Israel war on Iran and Prabowo's participation in the recently convened "Board of Peace" that many in Indonesia see as one of "Trump's political tools".

Taken together, these moves could "further fuel public sentiment that the Indonesian president is colluding with the aggressor", Alfin said.

'No 1 violator'

The US military has a long track record of disregarding Indonesia's airspace sovereignty. 

Admiral Yudo Margono, then chief of the Southeast Asian nation's armed forces, told parliament in 2023 that the US had "always been the No 1 violator of Indonesian airspace", with 11 unauthorised flights recorded in the first half of that year alone.

Between January 2024 and April 2025, US military aircraft reportedly conducted surveillance operations over the South China Sea on 18 occasions in violation of Indonesia's territorial waters and airspace.

Critics argue that formalising such access, rather than curbing violations, would reward bad behaviour and normalise what should remain a sovereignty red line.

Foreign military aircraft are currently required to obtain permits from Indonesia's foreign ministry and military headquarters.

The US would require "significant freedom" for its military assets should conflict erupt in the Taiwan Strait, Alfin said, almost certainly involving Indonesian airspace. 

Hanging chads: Lebanon ceasefire, leave Iran alone, US arrogance, Israeli domination of America

• Israeli media outlet i24 reported that what Iran has achieved is imposing a ceasefire in Lebanon through its agreement with the United States. The far-right journalist Yinon Magal said: “Trump surrendered to Iran.” The Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation, citing a source, reported that the army may seek to carry out strategic strikes before the ceasefire takes effect. Lebanese MP from Hezbollah, Hassan Fadlallah, told Reuters that the Iranian ambassador informed them the agreement will begin tonight. Regarding Hezbollah’s commitment to the truce, Fadlallah said that everything is linked to Israel’s adherence to a full cessation of all military operations.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Beijing, after two days of talks with Wang Yi, laid out what he calls the real American project: "dominating global energy markets" -- pursued through whatever pretext is handy. Venezuela: "First they announced Maduro had to be dealt with as the main drug lord. Now nobody mentions drugs anymore. Now they say drugs come from Mexico. We took Maduro -- the oil is ours." Iran: "They planned exactly the same thing. President Trump said more than once he was ready to take Iranian oil. Now the Strait of Hormuz is blocked -- never blocked in 45 years before the US and Israel attacked."  The motives: "For Israel, the unwavering conviction that Iran must be destroyed. The second task is, again, the oil markets." Russia: "The Trump administration is extending every Biden sanction. Lukoil and Rosneft have been pushed out of every international project. We have no illusions. This goal is being actively pursued -- Venezuelan oil, Iranian oil, Russian oil."

• Greenpeace has announced that its ship, the Arctic Sunrise, will join the upcoming Global Sumud Flotilla. Sailing alongside more than seventy vessels and over a thousand participants who seek to directly challenge Israel’s ongoing blockade of aid to Gaza. The Arctic Sunrise’s role is to provide technical and operational maritime support so that the vessels safely transit across the Mediterranean before they complete the last 200 nautical miles onto Gaza’s shores. 

•  A bloody epic in Bint Jbeil — Israeli media: Direct engagement with our soldiers in the neighborhoods of Bint Jbeil. Hezbollah fighters are emerging from everywhere and attacking our soldiers who are trying to reach the stadium. The clashes are taking place face to face. An unexpected attack with such heavy firepower from Hezbollah in Bint Jbeil… our soldiers are at their mercy. Helicopters are trying to land to evacuate the dead and wounded, but they are being met with heavy bursts of fire from the resistance.
• USA Today: The Pentagon is quietly intensifying contingency planning for a potential military operation in Cuba, but no orders have been issued so far.  
• Israel Hayom — owned by Miriam Adelson, one of the biggest Republican megadonors in America, just openly published: 'Israel has no choice but to re-establish a security zone, this time devoid of a civilian population.' Let that sink in. A major Israeli newspaper is straight-up calling for the ethnic cleansing of southern Lebanon. How deranged and sick do these Zionists have to be to publish this genocidal article like it's normal policy???

• Tasnim: Iran – Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Talks continue through Pakistan. Scattered and phased understandings are not acceptable. The long history of the US in changing positions and contradicting has made it a serious challenge to ensure the stability of any agreement with this country. We are now negotiating in a very difficult situation and it must be emphasized that the components of this understanding are joined to each other; Therefore, it is not possible to accept a part and postpone the rest to the future.
• The Armed Forces of Ukraine have started sending women on bicycles to carry out assaults. An FPV-watcher from the "Center" group noticed enemy movement. The target turned out to be a female soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on a bicycle.

• The Hebrew newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported: Around 11,000 residents of Kiryat Shmona have requested evacuation from the city to escape sirens and prolonged stays in shelters. However, more than half of these requests were rejected due to budget shortages. The Israeli government does not want to finance the evacuation of residents from Kiryat Shmona in order not to give an image of victory to Hezbollah, even though the residents themselves want to leave.
• Israel Hayom (Hebrew) – Lilach Shoval: The Israeli army is preparing for a possible renewal of fighting with Iran. In this context, during the ceasefire period, Iran is working to relocate its missile platforms from areas that were targeted and is dispersing them across wider مناطق, which could lead to an increase in missile launch rates if the confrontation resumes.

• Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian has emphasized China's support for Iran's sovereignty, security, and legal rights in the Strait of Hormuz, urging that they be respected and protected as a critical window for peace opens in the region. 
• Director of the Pentagon's missile defense agency, General Heath Collins: 'the United States will need years to restore stocks of ammunition used in the war against Iran'.

• AP reports: If the U.S. and Iran aren’t able to soon come to a deal to end the war or extend the ceasefire that expires next week, the Trump administration is setting the stage to shift its war campaign toward a more economic-focused effort aimed at choking Tehran into submission rather than relying on bombs alone says Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. 'We have told countries that if you are buying Iranian oil, that if Iranian money is sitting in your banks, we are now willing to apply secondary sanctions, which is a very stern measure. And the Iranians should know that this is going to be the financial equivalent of what we saw in the kinetic activities'.

• At the Center on Conscience and War, [they] are already working with several soldiers who called in the wake of Pope Leo’s statements, specifically citing his intervention as their motivation to file as a Conscientious Objector–the only legal option soldiers have to refuse participation. 
• There’s been another fire! Someone set fire to the Raytheon building in Warner Robins, Georgia. Raytheon is one of the world’s biggest arms manufacturers and supplies the US & Israel with their bombs, guidance systems and satellite intel. The fire is being investigated & no one has yet been caught.
• Amichai Stein: Trump says a ceasefire in Lebanon starting tonight has been agreed – ten days and the IDF will remain in their positions. Lebanon’s Prime Minister, Nawaf Salam, praises the efforts of literally every single nation in reaching a ceasefire in Lebanon, except Iran of course. While the Lebanese and Israeli governments desperately frame this ceasefire as a result of direct negotiations, it is very clearly a result of Iranian pressure ahead of a second round of talks in Islamabad. The ceasefire in Lebanon was announced by Trump without Israel’s security cabinet approval. Sources say Pakistani Field Marshal Assim Muneer called President Trump on behalf of Iran and forced him to declare a ceasefire ahead of a new round of talks in Islamabad.
• At the very start of the ceasefire period, intense Israeli airstrikes were reported across Lebanon. Just like in previous ceasefires with Israel, they always violate them and blame the other side.
• Zionist raid between the towns of Ghaziyeh and Qanarit in Lebanon. 

The good & bad from Japan

 

30,000 people recently gathered in Tokyo to defend Japan's Peace Constitution.

The US, Japan and other regional forces are coming together for the Philippines-hosted Salaknib (Shield), Cope Thunder and Balikatan (Shoulder-to-Shoulder) exercises, as the First Island Chain enters a new phase of military coordination.

With record troop numbers and expanded multi-domain drills, these exercises are meant to strengthen interoperability, while reinforcing a growing “missile arc” strategy aimed at deterring China. 

The historic deployment of Japanese troops to the Philippines for the first time since World War II also marks a significant shift in regional security dynamics. 

How will this evolving network of alliances affect Beijing’s strategic calculus? And could Taiwan join in the future? 

In this episode, we examine the scale and significance of these exercises and what they mean for the Taiwan Strait and the Indo-Pacific balance of power.  

Israel, a behind-the-scenes powerbroker in Sudan

 
Influencing this bloody conflict, Tel Aviv could help claw it back — if it wanted to.

By Alex De Waal

It’s long been clear that the road to peace in Sudan runs through Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — America’s three closest Arab allies. But last month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reminded Sudanese that he has a stake in their country too.

Speaking at the UN General Assembly in September, Netanyahu caused a stir among Sudanese when he held up two maps, ‘The Curse’ and ‘The Blessing.’ The first had Israel’s sworn enemies — Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and the Houthis in Yemen—marked in black. The second had its friends in green — among them Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Sudan.

Shortly after that, Israeli journalist Jonathan Lis wrote that Israel was floating a possible deal to end the fighting in Gaza, in which senior Hamas leaders would go into exile in Sudan. Hamas denied it — Yahya Sinwar would rather die in Gaza than flee to safety. Thee Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, denied it too. But the fact that Sudan is on Israel’s radar serves brings into focus how Sudan’s war is entangled in the Middle East’s higher-profile conflicts.

In 2020, as part of a deal in which the Trump Administration removed Sudan’s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism, Sudan agreed to join the Abraham Accords. General Abdel Fattah al Burhan, head of Sudan’s sovereignty council and de facto head of state, met with Netanyahu in Kampala, Uganda. The breakthrough meeting was hosted by Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, but it was brokered by UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed, known as MBZ. Sudan then froze Hamas assets in Sudan.

In the last days of the Trump administration, al-Burhan signed the declarative section of the Abraham Accord, in the presence of then U.S. Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin. Plans for a formal signing with Israel moved slowly, with a timetable reportedly agreed only in February 2023, when Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen visited Khartoum.

Al-Burhan’s deputy at the time, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo, known as "Hemedti" also had close ties with Israel. He developed close relations with the UAE, renting out his Rapid Support Force (RSF) units to fight as mercenaries in Yemen, whereby he also established strong links with Israel’s Mossad.

When war broke out in Sudan in April 2023, pitting the two generals against each other, Israel was in contact with both men. The Foreign Ministry leaned towards al-Burhan and the SAF, Mossad towards the RSF.

Israel’s Arab friends also backed different sides in the war. Egypt supports the SAF, in line with its tradition of backing Khartoum’s military establishment. The UAE provides extensive support to the RSF, even while the private Bank of Khartoum, which is majority owned by UAE financiers, is the main financial conduit for SAF. Saudi Arabia leans towards SAF, worried by the UAE’s destabilizing role in the Red Sea, which it considers its own backyard. 

During 18 months of fighting, a succession of mediation initiatives by the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Egypt and African leaders have come to nothing. One reason for this is that each time al-Burhan agrees to meet Hemedti, or to send a delegation to do so, the leader of Sudan’s powerful Islamists, Ali Karti, vetoes the move. Washington has put Karti under sanctions for “actively obstructing efforts to reach a ceasefire.” Karti now lives in Doha.

The Sudanese Islamists have longstanding ties to Hamas, which was a member of the Khartoum-based Popular Arab and Islamic Congress from the early 1990s, where it established offices, businesses, and training camps. Hamas sourced weapons from Sudan, provoking Israeli airstrikes. Active cooperation cooled in 2014, under pressure from Saudi Arabia.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia, despite their long-standing aversion to the Muslim Brothers, have come to believe that the Sudanese Islamists can be managed and no longer pose a threat beyond their own borders. (Egypt’s recent tripartite pact with Eritrea and Somalia also embraces the Damul Jadid group, a branch of the Muslim Brothers in Somalia.) Cairo and Riyadh have been ready to see money and weapons flow to SAF from Qatar, Turkey and even Iran. But Abu Dhabi remains hostile to Islamists, so far unpersuaded by Egypt’s argument that if it can live with the Muslim Brothers next door, the Emirates should be able to do so too.

It's long been clear that a deal in Arab capitals is a prerequisite for ending the fighting in Sudan. The question is how to get there. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has no visible interest in engaging at the high level that is needed. Initially, he put State Department Africa bureau officials in charge of the file, who are ignored by the Arab powerbrokers. While the current special envoy, Tom Perrellio, in theory reports to Blinken, in practice he doesn’t have the top-level backing needed.

When MBZ met with President Joe Biden last month, and affirmed a ”dynamic strategic partnership,” the Joint Statement included boilerplate words on Sudan’s war and humanitarian crisis.

Israel could change the equation. Even preliminary exploration of a plan to relocate Hamas to Sudan would need Israel to chart a path to a deal between al-Burhan and Hemedti. In turn, that will need a change in the military and financial equation—a credible show of force by SAF and its Egyptian backers, along with Emirati leverage on the RSF.

Whatever interests Abu Dhabi may have in Sudan, its stakes with Israel are far higher, and it has both carrots and sticks to pressure Hemedti.

The Hamas-to-Sudan story may be a straw in the wind. Even if it becomes a real prospect, Netanyahu or Hamas’s new leaders could pull out at any moment. Sudan’s generals are no pawns: they are experts at manipulating foreign patrons. But the chatter reaffirms how the fate of Sudan lies in the realpolitik of the Middle East, in the hands of states that see Sudan and its people as tokens in their power games.

~ Alex de Waal is executive director of the World Peace Foundation, Research Professor at the Fletcher School of Global Affairs, Tufts University, and Professorial Fellow at the London School of Economics. His latest book is New Pandemics, Old Politics: 200 years of the war on disease and its alternatives (Polity 2021).