Ukraine seeks weapons to target deep inside Russia

 

 

 

By Simplicius

 

Now, the central narrative has fully shifted to the question of “long range strikes” on Russia. It’s clearer than ever that this is the final strategic gimmick Zelensky has left in the bag to stoke a conflict between NATO and Russia.

CNN explains how top Ukrainian officials are en route to speak to Biden directly about opening up this final Pandora’s box:

There really is nothing left other than to launch massive provocations by whisking ATACMS and Storm Shadows as deep into Russia as possible.

But here’s the ultimate catch that the vast majority of observers do not understand: U.S.’ hesitancy is not about fear that Russia will lose and what “uncontrollable” chaos that would entail, as Ukrainian commentators keep telling us. No, rather it’s the opposite—the U.S. fears that Ukraine may provoke Russia to go “all out”, which would unfetter Putin from his “soft” approach to wage some kind of all out war that would result in Ukraine either being destroyed or totally subjugated.

You see, the smarter American policy advisors know that the only chance the West has to topple Russia, is to keep this conflict a slow boil such that Putin “sleep walks” into a trap, buying time for the regime to foment opposition against him. But Ukraine stands to accidentally unleash the full extent of the Russian war machine—which could encompass an official declaration of war, or simply the abrogation of all former “rules” against striking civilian objects, government buildings, leadership, Kiev in general, etc. This, Washington knows, would lead to Russia definitively occupying all of Ukraine, which would mean the end of the entire Ukrainian project 70 years in the making by the CIA and co.

In short: they want to bleed the bear slowly by poking it over and over such that the bear doesn’t even realize it’s bleeding out; what they don’t want is puncturing the bear so hard that he erupts into a frothy rage and beheads them with a grisly swipe of his claws.

Interestingly, a new Foreign Affairs piece—from the people of the Council on Foreign Relations—argues that it would be militarily futile to allow deep strikes in Russia:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/false-promise-ukraines-deep-strikes-russia

Career apparatchik Stephen Biddle argues that to have true strategic effect, Ukraine would have to combine such long range strikes with some massively successful maneuver warfare advances—which they simply don’t have the capability for at the moment:

From a strictly military perspective, restrictions never help. Giving Ukraine the means and permission to launch attacks deep into Russian-held territory would surely improve Ukrainian combat power. But the difference is unlikely to be decisive. To achieve a game-changing effect, Ukraine would need to combine these strikes with tightly coordinated ground maneuver on a scale that its forces have been unable to master so far in this war. Otherwise, the benefits Ukraine could draw from additional deep strike capability would probably not be enough to turn the tide.