I wrote to Vladimir Kozin today to ask if a certain theory I've pieced together was on the right path.
He had sent an email around sharing the joy of Russians that their government had at long last recognized the two Donbass Republics - Lugansk and Donesk - as independent states.
Great news Vladimir - congratulations
I read today that Zelensky actually wanted this so that Ukraine would
not have to implement Minsk agreements - plus all those votes in the
Donbass would now be gone next presidential election time.
Could this be true?
Bruce
Vladimir responded:
Yes, it is true.
Kind regards,
Dr. Vladimir Kozin
Member, Russian Academy of Military Sciences
Member, Russian Academy of Natural Sciences,
Vice President, Russian National Institute for Global Security Research
Winner of Colonel-General Varfolomei Korobushin Reward (Russian Strategic Missiles Forces) and Russian Academy of Natural Sciences Reward
Leading Expert, Center for Military-Political Studies, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO)
Ph.D, Senior Researcher (Academic Rank)
What Next?
So my theory is that all
sides wanted out of this mess without losing face. The US wanted out of
it - the Biden neo-cons (amateurs that they are) stumbled into a hornets
nest but were able to use it to help distract the public from our
collapsing economy at least until their next visit to the grocery
check-out counter.
After Russia declared it will send a peace-keeping force
to the Donbass all the EU, UK and US corporate agents had to scream and
holler. More sanctions will be placed on Russia.
But can Europe really afford to completely divorce themselves from doing
business with Russia?
France is in a tight spot because Macron is running
for reelection but most of the country hates him. He needs a diplomatic win, plus
Paris does understand that Russia, China, Iran and others are leading
the new push to multi-polarism. France doesn't want to be left behind as
the train leaves the station. But Macron has to play along for a while with the denouncing of Russia for recognizing the independence of the Donbass. What will Macron do now next to make himself 'indispensable'?
The US understands that it is
fading but needs a big enemy due to the fact that it has an economy
addicted to war. Thus, not being able to take down Russia as Washington
hoped, they need another diversion (all addicts are like this) so China
is now being aimed at through the Pentagon's gun-sights.
(We've just learned that a 'missile defense' radar, set to be deployed in
Hawaii, is now instead going into Guam. Even closer to China. Pentagon
would call it a 'strategic shift'. Activists in Guam are already
building resistance.)
Germany wants Nordstream 2
and needs a way out of this controversy since the Green Party partners
in the new
government have been fighting to kill the natural gas pipeline from
Russia. For the time being Germany is saying that
'certification' of the pipeline will be put on hold - but I don't think
it is dead yet. The German business community will likely be putting
big pressure on the government to
keep it alive. The Green Party takes
orders from Washington which
hates Nordstream 2 so they will keep trying to put a stake through the heart of the pipeline. Very sad how the
Greens have sold out. Without the pipeline how will Germans heat their
homes?
President
Zelensky wanted an out too. He knows his army would be slaughtered if
it attacked the Donbass in an all-out assault. Ukraine was never going
to honor their signing of the Minks Agreements that called for a
federated state where the Russian-ethnic citizens in the Donbass would
be allowed to speak their own language and elect their own local
leaders. The Nazis are adamantly opposed to the Minks Agreements.
So
Zelensky really wants to cut Donbass loose - won't have to worry about those
damn Minsk Agreements (that Kiev had agreed to honor but never did) and
those couple million voters in the Donbass during the next election.
Plus now that they temporarily moved the capital to Lvov (the Nazi stronghold in
western Ukraine) they can seriously think about dumping the other parts
of Ukraine that are Russian-ethnic and just create a 'pure Nazi state'
near the Poland border.
The US would like that and certainly the
weapons industry would rush into that new market. A US-NATO military
base would likely be built. This 'pure' Ukraine could then still help to
internally destabilize the other parts of Ukraine not currently in the
fascist grip by creating a festering sore along Russia's flank. The US
loves to do that - just look at Afghanistan, Libya, the former
Yugoslavia, Syria and Iraq. All examples of US-NATO efforts to create
failed states.
The remaining question?
Is this current situation going to drive Washington and Brussels to
double-down and push their endless war machine ever closer to Russia's
borders? If they do then fighting in
Ukraine could still happen. If the long and simmering war does
escalate
dramatically the question arises as to how far into Ukraine would Russia
go? Moscow's primary goal would be to take out the military capability
of Ukraine's Nazi-led army. They are not eager for war.
Putin does not want to have to rebuild
that vast Ukrainian territory that has been wrecked by US-NATO. He's
long said they need to fix it.
We should know soon, now that Russia has made its move on the chess board.
