By Kiji Noh
As we see Taiwan turn into a flashpoint with Nancy Pelosi's visit, here are some big picture perspectives and facts:
Taiwan was stolen from China and turned into a Japanese colony. It was returned to China after WWII in the Cairo Declaration, but the current LDP Japanese government is packed with (Nippon Kaigi) ideologues that believe in remilitarizing to reconstitute the Japanese Empire. They understand the way to do that is 1) annul their peace constitution and 2) fully remilitarize by 3) aligning themselves with US plans to contain and take down China ("Pacific Pivot"/"Indo-Pacific Strategy"). Taiwan is a key area for them, geo-strategically and historically. They are planning to be involved in a war over Taiwan, and the US wants and encourages this.
High level US strategy ("grand strategy") is to trigger a war with China (see Rand's "Thinking through the unthinkable"; ASB)
Elbridge Colby (US author of the 2018 National Defense Strategy) fleshed this out in more explicit detail in the "Strategy of Denial" where he said that the US cannot compete with China economically, or even in an arms race. A recycled "domino theory" of China's global imperial ambitions, Colby believes that US credibility is on the line. It must instigate a war, preferably over Taiwan, preferably in a manner where the blame can be placed on China to rally (create "a binding strategy" with) the rest of the world (in an "anti-hegemonic coalition") against it. Infowar and geo-informational delegitimation is key.
Jake Bebber, summarizes:
To ensure America’s freedom, security and prosperity, the United States must maintain a favorable military-economic balance of power with respect to key regions of the world. Asia’s demographic and economic weight clearly place that region as the most important to American interests, and therefore the cornerstone of American policy must ensure that Asia is not subjected to regional hegemony... it is critical that the United States preserve its differentiated credibility related to denying China regional hegemony...This demands that force structure and capabilities be prioritized around identifying and defeating China’s best strategy to achieve regional hegemony.... For both ideological and military reasons, Taiwan is the prime target of China’s focused and sequential strategy...There is a good probability that denial defenses might fail in part or completely, requiring the coalition to adapt and seek to recapture Taiwan or the other allied and partner nations.
Therefore, considerations must be given on how to influence and shape the resolve of the people and bind them to the outcome of the war. A component of strategy must be to force China to fight in ways that change or reinforce the coalition’s threat perception. China will be made to reveal its aggressiveness, ambition, cruelty, unreliability, power, and disrespect for the honor of other states, which in turn strengthens the resolve of coalition members. The premise of the binding strategy is that military and other material power is employed to create “political, perceptual effects that matter in war.” Thus, military planning must sometimes serve political purposes that shape the war to unfold in such a way that key decision makers and populations “increase their valuation of the stakes at hand.”
President Biden's privy war council, CNAS (whose members occupy 18 top cabinet positions) believe that a) the US can win a war with China b) that Japan (& Korea) should play a key role in fighting this war ("binding strategy").
Action steps:
- Tell Nancy Pelosi to stay home rather than starting WW III with a trip to Taiwan
- You can call Pelosi's office at 1-202-225-4965
- You can write to Pelosi from this link https://www.speaker.gov/contact
- Nancy Pelosi’s Chief of Staff: Terri.McCullough@mail.house.gov
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