Always good daily updates
Pirate World, Greece & Iran. Poland, Belarus and Ukraine. G7 oligarch shakedown.
Alex hails from Athens, Greece.
Bruce Gagnon is coordinator of the Global Network Against Weapons & Nuclear Power in Space. He offers his own reflections on organizing and the state of America's declining empire....
The collapsing US military & economic empire is making Washington & NATO even more dangerous. US could not beat the Taliban but thinks it can take on China-Russia-Iran...a sign of psychopathology for sure. @BruceKGagnon
Pirate World, Greece & Iran. Poland, Belarus and Ukraine. G7 oligarch shakedown.
Alex hails from Athens, Greece.
By Vladimir Kozin
It is not ‘highly likely’. It is a reality.
Poland is actively looking for a way to "correctly" annex Western Ukraine so that it would not have to pay off Ukrainian debts or not receive a serious military response from Russia. The Poles believe that they are returning the original Polish territories: the Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk, and Vinnytsa Regions, inherited by Ukraine after World War II. The German territories, which were surrendered to Poland by the same agreement, and by the same logic should be returned to the FRG.
Warsaw is taking specific steps to achieve its intended goal in several directions at once. Poland is among the leaders in providing support to Ukraine, being the largest logistics hub for Western military assistance to Kyiv and sending into Ukraine ‘soldiers of fortune. At the same time, Warsaw is increasing defense spending and is firmly in favor of strengthening the transatlantic link. Several times high-ranking Polish officials – active and former – insisted to acquire the U.S. nuclear weapons, the idea being enthusiastically supported by the U.S. Ambassador to Warsaw. The same frantic idea was publicly articulated by Zelensky at the 2022 Munich Security Conference
The loudest calls to impose anti-Russian sanctions come also from Poland. In confirmation of its commitment to its position, Poland terminated the gas supply agreement with Gazprom ahead of schedule, and pretended that it does not need Russian natural gas at all. The Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita reported that Poland cannot find an alternative to Russian gas, and will receive it in reversed way from Germany, which will lead to a sharp increase in prices for this fuel in the Polish economy. But, it is its choice, rather than Russian intention.
The Polish Foreign Ministry declared …
The Polish MFA declared that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine poses a clear threat to the existence of the latter as an independent state. Realizing that the sooner the negotiation process moves from the deadlock, the better chances Kiev has to preserve its sovereignty, Poles do not stop calling on to the Ukrainian authorities not to hammer out any compromise with Russia under any circumstances.
The efforts of Polish diplomats have already prompted the Ukrainian president Zelensky to announce a bill that equate the rights Poles with Ukrainians in Ukraine, giving them the same rights, except for the right to vote in the Ukrainian nation-wide elections, that it is not enough for Warsaw to take control of the territories of Western Ukraine. Kiev has also permitted Polish citizens to occupy top official positions in Ukraine, and fill in the local power structures with its appointees, and to get full clearance for getting a highly sensitive classified Ukrainian state information.
To this end, activities are actively carried out to introduce Polish advisers and specialists in all spheres of the Ukrainian governmental administrative, economic, financial and military structures. It is noteworthy that the menus of Western Ukrainian restaurants are already being prepared in Ukrainian and Polish languages. But this measure produces no harm compared with other vast administrative and many other rights generously offered by inadequate Zelensky to Warsaw. Obviously, with just one aim: to save inevitably crumbling Ukrainian leaders from a disaster and total irreparable military defeat. Economic and financial disaster in Ukraine has already voluntarily achieved.
Can Ukraine loose its independence?
What will be the result of such ‘brotherhood’ type steps made by Kiev? To transform Ukraine into what? Into a new Polish protectorate or a colony of Poland? By pursuing a policy of “soft and hard power”, Poland is working out a specially camouflaged scenario. The Poles are pushing NATO to send a peace-keeping contingents to Ukraine, equipped with heavy weapons – unlike normal peace-keepers sanctioned by the UN Security Council.
The USA and many transatlantic Alliance’s member states have already sent too many ‘advisers’ and “instructors” with the aim to kill Ukrainians and Russians in Ukraine by deadly weapons. Deliberately, with commitment. The Russian and Ukrainian citizens will remember such barbaric acts for ever.
It will be a new occupation of Ukraine. Now by Poland. The last one took place for several years during its German Nazi occupation in 1941-1944.
Poland is going to do the same under the guise of the alleged peacekeeping mission ‘for maintaining security’. Despite the refusal received, Warsaw continues to insist on the need for the participation of its military contingent in the “defense” of Ukraine from “Russian aggression” though the third aggression versus Donbass was launched not by Russia, but by Kiev from 2014 till 2022. It has to be reminded of Ukrainian military shelling of civilians in Donbass for nearly eight successive years, when 14,000 civilians have been killed and 34,000 wounded by the in-discriminatory fire prohibited by the Minsk Accords of 2014-2015. Under the guise of conducting exercises, the Polish Armed Forces are forming task force groups near the borders with Ukraine and Belarus, and are staffing logistic support units to a full-fledged wartime status.
The direct annexation of Western Ukrainian territories and their incorporation into the Polish Republic is unlikely to be approved by the European community.
Russian response
First, It will be strongly condemned by the Russian Federation. Based on this, the Polish ‘swallowing Ukraine’ scenario creates a new third formidable security threat to Europe – the first one: moving the U.S. tactical nuclear weapons from 1953 and the U.S. missile defense systems from 2011 as a forward-based capabilities on the European continent, and the second one: after Kiev deployed nearly 60,000 troops’ near Donbass with intention ‘to contravene’ completely it in mid-February-beginning of March 2022.
Parrying opponents' questions about the scale of Russia's response, the Poles proceed from the fact that the country has the status of a NATO member and the "main ally" of the USA in the ‘Eastern front’ in the Eastern Europe. However, all Polish scenarios for the division and disintegration of Ukraine will pose a threat to the Russian Federation, which will subsequently be neutralized because of internationalization of the conflict created by NATO and implemented in the form of a Ukrainian proxy war.
The successful implementation of the peaceful takeover of the Western Ukrainian regions can go in further claims to all the territories in the Eastern Europe that will affect the interests of Russia's main ally in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, namely, Belarus. Obviously, Poland's irrelevant actions are not aimed at the speedy settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but at the realization of its territorial claims, even by involving Europe into a direct military confrontation with Russia.
No doubt: the participation of the Polish military contingent in hostilities on the side of Ukraine on the Ukrainian soil will inevitably lead to Russian retaliatory military strikes.
~ Dr. Vladimir Kozin is a Member, Russian Academy of Military Sciences; Member, Russian Academy of Natural Sciences and Vice President, Russian National Institute for Global Security Research
What was happening in Ukraine even before the war with Russia began?
This video (above) gives the viewer a better understanding of the long-time deadly conflict.
Was the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol really loaded with Nazis? See their tats (below)
Are the so-called leaders from the US-EU complete and utter fools?
You be the judge....
In recent months, many Western countries have offered financial assistance to Kiev, with billions of dollars and euros being sent to assist in the purchase of weapons and military equipment to be used against Russian forces. For the Western media, such aid is a “humanitarian effort”, and for Ukrainian propaganda it is an “example of cooperation between Ukraine and the West”. But none of this is real. It is just simple business. Kiev is taking loans it will have to pay back in the future. And, certainly, payment will only be possible at the expense of a major inflationary crisis.
One of the largest global risk analysis agencies, Moody’s Corporation, recently issued a report in which it downgraded Ukraine’s credit score from Caa2 to Caa3, which corresponds to “poor” or “high risk”. At the same time, the agency’s perspective on the credit situation in Ukraine changed from “under review” to “negative”, with expectations of significant deterioration in the short term.
Among the justifications for such classification, the agency emphasized the widespread debt situation that the country is currently in. Loans recently taken by Kiev from Western countries as a result of the military conflict have now reached a highly worrying level, which precludes the existence of any optimistic expectation of rapid economic and social recovery. The company predicts that Kiev’s debt will jump from 49% of the national GDP – last year’s rate – to 90% in 2022, forming an absolutely catastrophic scenario in the coming months.
In fact, Western loans are acting as an important form of aid in the immediate purchase of military material, which allows Ukraine to continue fighting for an extended period of time, despite the zero chances of victory. The problem, however, is that the constant taking of loans is creating an unsustainable debt for the Ukrainian economy, which will result in default.
This scenario aggravates a series of previous factors that were already harming the country’s economy. Ukraine was already in debt for almost half of its GDP before Moscow launched the special operation. Now, with the general costs of the current conflict, there are already estimates by the World Bank in economic losses around 45% of the country’s GDP. Furthermore, with the current situation, the Ukrainian government has lost a considerable part of its tax revenue. Adding all this to the current loans, there really does not seem to be any good expectations in the economic area in Ukraine, regardless of the outcome of the military conflict.
Recently, the G7 announced a new aid program for Ukraine, which includes several billion-dollar packages sent by each of its members. The public objective of the measure, this time, is to “save” the Ukrainian economy, not just to encourage militarization. However, the practice of offering loans is maintained on a large scale. Donations to Kiev, although existing, are few and of low value – as, for example, the recently announced German donation of one billion euros. In general, loans remain the norm, both for immediate aid and for long-term macroeconomic recovery planning. Obviously, the propaganda effect of this is immense, both for Zelensky and his allies. But the seriousness of the real situation cannot be ignored by analysts: Ukraine will not have enough money to pay for all this.
If Russia ended its special operation today, the result would be a Ukraine militarily defeated, politically disorganized and economically indebted, dependent on constant Western aid – which would result in new debts, in an endless cycle. The best way to handle the situation is through a formal surrender on the part of Zelensky, accepting the peace conditions demanded by Moscow, and initiating negotiations for the restructuring of the country. With a neutral and demilitarized Ukraine, there would be possibilities for cooperation with both Russia and the West for economic reconstruction. But, apparently, this is not the desire of the Ukrainian president and his team.
The most likely scenario is that Russia will be forced at some point to increase the intensity of the operation to achieve its objectives of neutralization, demilitarization, and sovereignty for Donbass, which will make Kiev leave the conflict in a much more disadvantageous situation and much more economically dependent on the West. Post-special operation Ukraine will only be able to pay off its debt in the long term, after successive re-negotiations, and through a large tax rise and inflationary crisis, with the final consumer being punished for the mistakes made by the Kiev Junta.
In the same way that the UK only paid off its debts to the US for reconstruction after WWII in the 2000s, Kiev will face long times of debt in the coming decades. And this may be even worse if this “aid” – which only benefits Western creditors themselves – is not cut now.
~ Lucas Leiroz is a researcher in Social Sciences at the Rural Federal University of Rio de Janeiro and geopolitical consultant
The militants of the battalion of the Cherkasy Territorial Defense refuse to fight and recorded a video message:
1. On May 22, we were sent to the front line to carry out a combat mission;
2. Heavy weapons were not provided;
3. We refused to carry out the task;
4. Our weapons and protective equipment were taken from us;
5. We are threatened with arrest and prosecution;
6. We have two "dead" and a large number of "wounded";
7. There is no qualified medical care and funding;
8. We don't want to be cannon fodder.
These troops are Ukraine's territorial battalions (Volksturm or home guard) composed of guys in their forties and fifties. In Kiev's desperate losing move they've sent these men to the front lines in Donbass. They were never intended to be front line soldiers but to be in their home oblasts for rear area duties.
So this troop revolt indicates the last gasps of the US puppet regime in Kiev. They have essentially lost this war. But Washington and Brussels won't allow them to talk peace with Russia.
Washington wants Kiev to fight til the last Ukrainian is dead. All to 'overextend and unbalance' Russia as was called for in the 2019 Rand Corp. report.
I planted more veggies yesterday in my plot at the Brunswick community garden. My peas (previously planted) are just beginning to pop up along my wobbly trellis.
In addition I've planted kale, spinach, carrots and collard greens.
Next to go in will be eggplant, tomatoes, peppers and onions. I think they will all fit in nicely.
Volunteering to come out of the ground is a Milkweed plant that attracts endangered Monarch butterflies. Everyone who has a plot at the garden is urged to allow the Milkweed to grow. I've got one already emerging in a corner spot.
Getting water at the gardens is facilitated by a solar-powered device that pumps the water into large tubs in various spots across the garden. All I need to do is fill up a water can and take it to my plot.
I'm kind of surprised that quite a few of the available plots at the garden so far are not being prepared for the growing season. Hopefully that will change in the next few weeks.
I ride my bike to the plot and all needed tools are available in a shed on the grounds. Bike riding is one of my lifetime joys and gardening has become another super-wonderful experience for me. I love getting my hands in the dirt and watching things grow.
In my line of work seeing real change either takes a very long time or rarely happens. Maybe that is why I love gardening so much - I can actually see clear results fairly quickly and can then eat them!
I'm so happy to have this bit of ground to play with.
Bruce
How can we afford another war - and with a nuclear power?
Thanks goes to Catholic Worker activist Kathy Boylan in Washington DC for suggesting that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. interview Bruce Gagnon about Ukraine.
The recent interview carried on a detailed and interesting discussion covering many of the key aspects of the current tragic war.
Around the same time as the interview was done, the US House of Representatives voted to send another $40 billion to Ukraine (Biden had only requested $33 billion). This comes at a time when the Congress has repeatedly told the American people that there is no money for Medicare4All, no money for Student Loan Debt forgiveness, money has been taken out of the climate change budget to send to the war zone, and infrastructure across the US continues to deteriorate at alarming rates.
Gagnon reviewed the many diplomatic attempts by Russia since at least 2007 to get the US-Europe to stop NATO expansion and regular war games up to its borders.
At the time of the collapse of the former Soviet Union, then US Secretary of State James Baker promised Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not expand 'one inch' eastward toward Russia. This was in return for Gorbachev agreeing to the reunification of the divided Germany. Since that time NATO expansion has been on full-steam ahead.
In addition, Gagnon reminded that the US has built missile launch facilities in Romania and Poland that can fire first-strike nuclear-capable Tomahawk cruise missiles that could reach Russia in a very short time. A Cuban missile crisis in reverse. What if China or Russia were building similar missile launch bases in Canada or Mexico? The US would go ballistic!
NATO (in order to justify its existence and to funnel more taxpayer funds into the military industrial complex) is now going global as it recruits 'partners' like Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, and others to help encircle China. NATO is an offensive war machine and a grave danger to world peace.
Listen to the podcast interview here
We are servicemen of the 79th Brigade, 2nd and 3rd battalions. We are located in the village of Yampol.
Our commanders led us into the forest to dig in, we had a couple of shovels for a lot of people… we were trashed – we didn’t even have time to attach a bayonet.
A veteran top German politician has said the West’s refusal to listen to Moscow’s concerns is one of the main causes of the current conflict in Ukraine. Oskar Lafontaine, who from 1995 until 1999 served as chair of the Social Democrats (SPD), accused the West of ignoring Russia’s security interests for years.
In an interview with left-wing newspaper Junge Welt published on May 21, Lafontaine argued that “for a long time, we have been in a situation where Russia and China have been militarily encircled by the US.” The former SPD leader said Moscow had made it clear to NATO for 20 years that Ukraine should not become part of the military alliance – a scenario, which, according to Lafontaine, would mean US missiles deployed on the Ukraine-Russia border.
“These security interests were consistently ignored,” the politician said. And this was “one of the key reasons for the outbreak of the Ukraine war.”
Speaking of Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, the former SPD chair dismissed the argument that every country is free to decide what alliance to join.
“Everyone knows that the US would never accept Cuba’s accession to a military alliance with Russia, nor the deployment of Russian missiles on the US border with Mexico or Canada,” Lafontaine argued.
According to the German politician, Russia’s key concern in Ukraine is not NATO accession per se, but the prospect of missiles appearing on the border with minimal warning time.
Lafontaine broke down the Ukraine crisis into three key phases: firstly, NATO’s relentless eastern expansion, despite warnings from within the US that the strategy risked a conflict with Russia; secondly, President Putin’s “decision to invade Ukraine”; and thirdly, Joe Biden’s “war of attrition.”
The politician said America’s $40 billion dollar aid package for Ukraine, consisting mostly of weapons, is further “proof that the US does not want peace.”
“They want to weaken their rival Russia and say so quite openly,” he added.
Lafontaine, however, clarified that he condemns the war, “just like I condemn without any qualification all other wars that violate international law.”
The politician argued that further arms to Ukraine will prolong the war, meaning “yet more people will die.” He accused politicians in the West of thinking purely in the categories of ‘victory’ and ‘defeat,’ while ignoring the “most important” aspect, which is saving people’s lives.
According to Lafontaine, “those, who do not want more people to die, must be against any prolongation of the war, and consequently also against any weapons delivery.”
He criticized the argument that by providing military support to Kiev, the West is helping Ukraine defend itself, questioning why no one called for supporting “countries attacked by the US with deliveries of German weapons” in the past.
Speaking of Russia sanctions, Lafontaine claimed that they “are increasingly hurting people here at home – especially those with lower incomes, who can no longer pay their energy bills.”
We are shooting ourselves in the knee. The US is probably laughing at us, because they are hardly affected by the sanctions, they can sell their liquefied natural gas in Europe in bigger quantities and their defense industry is getting a lot of business.
Finland's gas future depends on Russian supplies to Latvia
By Dmitry Sikorsky
The refusal of the Finns to use Russian energy resources will come back to bite them, Alexey Grivach, deputy director of the National Energy Security Fund, said in a conversation with the FBA "Economics Today", adding that there is nothing economic in this story. [There is less and less REAL economy in the West, which is substituting financial tricks for the real economy, with central banks simply printing currency to cover debts. The system is fraying around the edges.]
Finland was left without Russian gas
Finnish gas distributor Gasum announced the termination of Russian gas supplies by May 21, 2022. The reason for the situation was Helsinki's refusal to pay for raw materials under the ruble conversion scheme through Gazprombank.
Gasum claims it is ready for such a development of events, and is betting on Balticconnector, a gas pipeline laid along the bottom of the Gulf of Finland from Estonia to Finland, but the rhetoric of the Finnish side is doubtful.
Firstly, the Finns do not have LNG terminals today, so Helsinki cannot buy LNG on the free market, and secondly, the situation is the same in neighboring Estonia, whose economy was powered by Russian gas until February 2022.
Helsinki announced the purchase of a floating LNG terminal from the United States (one of the beneficiaries of this decision), but it is not known when it will be connected to the network. [But besides that, LNG is not a viable substitute for pipelined gas when large amounts are required, because it costs about 40% more than the latter. This makes the decision against Russian gas extremely costly and threatens whole industries while causing immense inflation in households that heat with gas.]
Theoretically, it is possible to link the Finnish energy sector with LNG terminals in Lithuanian Klaipeda and Polish Świnoujście, but this scheme is unprofitable. Pulling gas from there is very expensive, especially without long-term contracts for the supply of LNG. [Actually all sanctions on Russia will prove prohibitively expensive for Europe.]
With the rejection of Russian gas, oil and electricity and the hasty entry into NATO, the Finns are working at a loss. The political elites in Finland are trying to reorient the country towards the United States, despite the enormous losses. [This is based on the gravely erroneous belief that the US is a source of economic and military security. The events in Ukraine are absolute proof that the US has nothing at all to offer to the world except lies and false hopes. The lend-lease, for example, is a hopeless debt trap from which there is no escape. The Ukrainian economy has been shattered by the war. Ironically only Russia offers the stability that Ukraine needs.]
“Finland's gas actions are politically motivated. All this time, anti-Russian hysteria was fueled in Helsinki against the backdrop of the government’s decision to apply for NATO membership,” concludes Grivach.
Hundreds of people rallied at Tokyo's Shiba Park on May 22 to protest Joe Biden's three-day visit to Japan, as international tensions are running high over the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Biden arrived in Japan on Sunday and is set to attend a summit on May 24 where he will meet Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison to promote the "Quad" mechanism.
The Quad, officially the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, was initiated in 2007 by then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and supported by then leaders of the US, India and Australia.
"I oppose Biden's visit to Japan. I think it will bring about a new crisis to Asia. I think the US-Japan alliance aims to dominate Asia by military operations. Now the alliance is planning to gradually involve Japan and its Self-Defense Force in wars," said Ryusuke Motoyama, a member of the Bureau of Affairs of the Executive Commission for Preventing Constitutional Amendment for War.
Regis Tremblay:
Bruce Gagnon discusses the danger of Sweden and Finland joining NATO; the $40 BILLION gift to Ukraine is almost as large as Russia's entire military budget of about $60B.
And, we compared the US economy to the Russian economy: a "Tale of Two Countries."
Jeju Island, South Korea (April 3) museum that records the horrific massacres directed by the US following the defeat of the Japanese in WW II.
After the war the US took control of Korea and installed former Koreans who collaborated with the hated Japanese occupiers as 'security forces'. It soon became clear that the US did not intend to allow real 'democracy' in Korea.
As a result protests occurred all over Korea - including on Jeju Island. The US responded with brutal crackdowns and killings that resulted in tens of thousands of deaths on Jeju.
For years it was illegal to speak of the Jeju massacres - but only in recent years has the story surfaced and the memorial museum was built on Jeju to reveal the truth to the world.
Hundreds of people gathered near Incirlik Air Base in the southern Turkish province of Adana last week to voice their opposition to the military presence of the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
While Turkey claims it is their base (while true in a sense) it is the US-NATO that ultimately control the operation there.
The US has had between 50-100 airplane launched tactical nuclear weapons at Incirlik for years.
The US-NATO also have the same nukes stationed at bases in Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and Italy.